An important Civitas think tank report out today says that politicians are caught in an “illusion” that the UK remains a global defence power.
The book, entitled Defence Acquisition for the Twenty-First Century, was written by co-authors Chris Donnelly, a Soviet specialist, and David McOwat, a MoD scientific advisor, and edited by former shadow defence secretary and Tory MP Bernard Jenkin.
It’s depressing reading for those of us who have constantly warned against cutting our Armed Forces any further. Echoing many of my concerns, the authors say that recent campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq came at a heavy cost to Britain's military capabilities.
However, spending reviews in the last parliament saw defence expenditure reduced so drastically that the equipment used in the two campaigns cannot be replaced, leaving all three services with large deficiencies in key areas.
They add that there is now considerable doubt among military experts that Britain will be able to maintain its NATO commitment of spending two per cent of GDP on defence.
This is unacceptable at a time when new challenges and mounting uncertainty in the world are likely to require our armed forces to be used at short notice, and in circumstances demanding a more agile and flexible force.
The authors, together with a number of eminent former soldiers, academics and defence analysts, criticise the “impossible mess” spending on UK military equipment has become due to the use of a limited number of contractors.
In particular, they regret the downscaling of our defence production capabilities and capacity, particularly as key programmes can take decades to mature. The result, they fear, will be the permanent and irreplaceable loss of knowledge and know-how.
The report concludes that unless we do things differently, by thinking long term and using smaller contractors, Britain should relinquish the idea of participating in campaigns that “rely on sustained diplomatic effort or military deterrence, let alone on the ability to deliver force.”
It ends: “Politicians still behave as though the UK has the same power as 10 or 20 years ago, but that is an illusion, which is positively dangerous.”
We must wait for the next SDSR this autumn to find out exactly how limited our resources will be, but with Defence Secretary Michael Fallon saying more cuts are needed, the news cannot be good.
In addition, the government looks willing to fudge the issue, by including aid deployments in defence expenditure totals. While this may give the impression we are meeting our NATO target, the truth is very different.