The uprising in Egypt has been greeted by manywith delight.
I am more cautious. These violent delights haveviolent ends, as Shakespeare said, and if we look at earlier revolutions, theyhave not all ended well.
Analysts compare this one to the fall of theShah in Iran in 1979, when Tehran’s streets were full of people united in thedesire to rid themselves of a tyrant.
But when the crowds cleared, the ayatollahsemerged from the shadows. Iran is now one of the most hardline theocracies inthe world.
It supports Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria,Hamas in Palestine, menaces the Gulf states and is a greater threat to Israelthan any immediate neighbour.
Iranian women are veiled and subjugated. Anyonewho speaks out is quelled. Many students who protested in 2009 remain in jail.
Egypt is an ancient and tolerant civilization.
The Egyptians were the first Arabs to sign apeace treaty with Israel, for which they receive £1.3bn annually from the USA.
Consequently, Mubarak’s government is viewed asa ‘puppet’ regime by many.
There are people waiting in the wings who woulddo Egypt untold harm. The Muslim Brotherhood is deeply suspect and has producedsome of the most fanatical jihadists in history.
Dark forces are massing. Last week, Mossadannounced that Al Qaeda had sent 100 suicide bombers into Egypt’s Sinaipeninsula in an attempt at destabilisation.
The massacre of 21 Coptic Christians on NewYear’s Eve by terrorists was aimed at destroying the centuries of peacefulcoexistence between the two religions.
In protest, Muslim Alexandrians lined thestreets to protect the Copts on their way to church.
But this shows what they are up against.
If the extremists get their way, there will beno more young women doctors in jeans talking to TV crews. There will be nofreedom, no right of assembly.
It’s why I think the Egyptian governmentdeserves a chance to organize an orderly handover. Mubarak must go but onlywhen the country is ready.
In a region, which could catch fire overnight,we should be careful what we wish for.