See below for daily updates on the campaign.
From the moment Richard was first selected in 2006, and then elected in 2010, he has made his position very clear.
He has no doubt we’d be freer, safer, more prosperous and in control of our destiny if we left the EU.
What was sold as a trading agreement is now an unwieldy bureaucracy, run from the centre, with 'ever closer union,' its central theme.
The free movement of people, another founding principle, has been shown to be what it is: a farce and totally irresponsible.
Not only is it attracting tens of thousands of economic migrants and refugees, who risk life and limb for a better life, but terrorists are heading our way too.
The Prime Minister’s so-called reforms have achieved little, with our borders still exposed and vulnerable.
The eurozone stifles enterprise, aspiration and hope and crushes weaker states like Greece in an economic straitjacket from which they can never escape.
It's time to break free.
Five positive reasons to Vote Leave
We should spend our money on our priorities. We send over £350 million every week to Brussels. That’s enough money to build a brand new hospital every week. It’s half England’s schools budget, four times Scotland’s schools budget, and four times our science budget. We should spend our money on our priorities like the NHS, not the EU.
Let’s take back control over our borders. At the moment a quarter of a million Europeans come here every year - that’s a city the size of Newcastle and puts a big strain on public services. We can’t stop criminals coming here from Europe and we can’t deport terror suspects because the European Court is in charge.
The risky option is voting to stay in the EU. A vote to remain means that Brussels will take more power and money every year - this is the real threat to jobs and security. It will mean bailing out the euro the next time it goes wrong. The EU’s migrant crisis is out of control and it plans to allow in more countries like Turkey, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. It means a growing strain on public services like the NHS, school places, and housing.
We should be able to kick out the people who make our laws. Half of our laws are now made by EU politicians in Brussels who we never voted for. The EU is good for those who’ve already got power and money like the big banks - it isn’t good for the millions of people on PAYE. We have very little say in the EU - they don’t listen to us. The Eurozone has a permanent majority in the EU voting system. Every time we have tried to stop a new EU law we have been defeated. We should be able to kick out the people who make our laws.
Let’s take back control over our economy and trade. The EU has too much control over our economy. Only 5% of businesses export to the EU but 100% are caught by EU red tape. If we take back control we can run our economy in the interests of millions of small businesses and entrepreneurs. We will also be able to take back control over trade so that we can do deals with fast growing countries like China and India - this will help business create more jobs.
June 22, 2016
This time tomorrow, polls will be open. Please help your team of local Vote Leave volunteers to get out the vote today and tomorrow. Your Regional Director can put you in touch – or email supporters@voteleave.uk. Thank you.
German industrialists call for continued free trade
Markus Kerber, the Head of the BDI, the German CBI, has called for continued free trade if we Vote Leave, stating tariffs would be ‘a very, very foolish thing in the 21st century. The BDI would urge politicians on both sides to come up with a trade regime that enables us to uphold and maintain the levels of trade we have’ if we Vote Leave (BBC News, June 2016, link).
Last year, the EU sold the UK £67.8 billion more than the UK sold the EU (ONS, 31 March 2016, link). It isn’t in either side's interests to put up trade barriers.
Free trade will continue. As David Cameron once said: 'If we were outside the EU altogether, we’d still be trading with all these European countries, of course we would ... Of course the trading would go on … There’s a lot of scaremongering on all sides of this debate. Of course the trading would go on' (The Andrew Marr Show, 6 January 2013, link).
Wembley debate shows the positive choice is to Vote Leave tomorrow
Yesterday, Gisela Stuart, Andrea Leadsom and Boris Johnson made the positive case for taking back control at the Wembley debate (BBC News, 22 June 2016, link).
The IN campaign failed to make a positive contribution during the whole campaign. They can’t explain how we can ever control immigration from inside the EU or get their facts right on how much of our laws are made in Brussels.
The public can choose project fear and vote IN tomorrow or they can chose project hope and take back control of their democracy, their money and their borders
Pressure on schools due to uncontrolled migration will grow if we stay
New Vote Leave research shows the school population could grow by between 261,000 and 571,000 if we stay in the EU. This will add between £1 billion and £1.9 billion to the education budget (Daily Mail, 22 June 2016, link).
Public services are under pressure due to uncontrolled migration. Each year a city the size of Newcastle arrives in the UK. The IN campaign has no answers on how to control immigration.
If we Vote Leave tomorrow, we can have an Australian-style points-based system which will prioritise those with the skills we need while managing pressure on public services. That’s the safer choice.
Turkish Government exposes IN campaign’s hypocrisy on Turkey
The chief adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has accused David Cameron of changing his position on Turkey for electoral purposes, stating: ‘We thought that Mr Cameron was our chief supporter in our quest for European Union membership. We are really, really flabbergasted’ (Daily Telegraph, 21 June 2016, link).
The IN campaign can’t be honest about Turkey. The truth is that David Cameron is, in his own words, the ‘strongest possible advocate’ of Turkish accession (Speech in Ankara, 27 July 2010, link).
We are paying £1.8 billion to five candidate countries to join (Vote Leave, 27 April 2016, link).
Turkish accession is being accelerated with unanimous support. Talks could begin the day after the referendum (Financial Times, 14 June 2016, link).
The only way to stop this is to Vote Leave tomorrow.
Free movement rules expose skewed moral compass of EU debate
Yesterday, the Home Secretary asked the Supreme Court to allow her to remove an Italian national who was convicted of killing a man with a hammer and strangling him with a flex iron (Daily Telegraph, 21 June 2016, link). So long as we are in the EU, the European Court is in charge of who we can deport.
This case shines a light on the skewed moral compass at the heart of EU rules on free movement. It is dangerous and undemocratic.
The only way to take back control of our borders is to Vote Leave tomorrow.
IN campaign’s business letter exposes lack of support among business for EU
The IN campaign have finally published their business letter (The Times, 22 June 2016, link).
After a campaign focused on the economy, the IN campaign have persuaded just 0.023% of British businesses to back their case, including the giant American investment banks which crashed the economy in 2009.
Big business is split, with companies such as JCB and Next backing a leave vote, but small and medium firms oppose giving the European Commission control of our economy and trade.
June 21, 2016
Steve Hilton reveals the truth - the PM was told immigration can’t be controlled while we’re in the EU
The former No. 10 Director of Strategy, Steve Hilton, has revealed that while he was working for David Cameron, the Prime Minister was told that it was impossible to cut immigration to the tens of thousands if we stayed in the EU (Daily Mail, June 2016, link).
David Cameron promised in the 2015 manifesto to get immigration down to the tens of thousands. He knew that this was impossible to deliver so long as we are in the EU.
Jeremy Corbyn admitted on Sunday that it is impossible to have limits on free movement of people and to remain a member of the EU. He’s right (BBC News, June 2016, link).
It’s time for David Cameron to be honest with the British people. He must abandon his manifesto promise if we stay in. It's corrosive of public trust in politics to pretend otherwise (BBC News, June 2016, link).
Prices will come down if we Vote Leave
Independent experts are clear, EU membership and the meddling court that comes with it have put up prices and hurt our economic growth. If we Vote Leave, we can take back control of the £350 million we hand to Brussels every week and spend it on our priorities.
The European Court has consistently increased the price of everyday goods and services, such as insurance, beer and energy bills.
The independent House of Commons Library has concluded that EU membership actually increases the costs of consumer goods, stating that the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy ‘artificially inflates food prices’. The EU imposes substantial tariffs on goods like footwear (a 17% tariff), bicycles (15% tariff) and a range of clothing (12% tariff) (House of Commons Library, 18 September 2013, link).
If we Vote Leave, we will scrap VAT on household energy bills, saving £64 for each family.
BSE’s currency scaremongering falls apart
The IN campaign has wheeled out George Soros to try to scare the British people about what might happen to Sterling if we Vote Leave. But the fact is that Sterling has increased in value, despite polling showing shifts to Leave. The markets are prepared for us to Vote Leave.
This is just the latest example of the IN campaign’s scaremongering falling apart.
Vote Leave to protect our pensions
Professor David Blake, Director of the Pensions Institute at the Cass Business School, has written a paper outlining 10 reasons why staying in the EU ranges from ‘pretty bad to very, very bad’ for pensions (Daily Express, June 2015, link).
Jeremy Corbyn explains why we should Vote Leave
On Sky News yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn gave an interview where he was far more sceptical of the EU than supportive (Sky News, June 2016, link).
He made clear that the EU and its TTIP deal are a threat to the NHS and pointed out that EU tax havens benefit the very wealthy and multinationals.
Jeremy Corbyn has always been an articulate critic of the EU - pointing out that Brussels is tearing up the social chapter and ‘damaging working class and workers interests across Europe’ (Sky News, September 2015, link).
On Sunday Jeremy Corbyn revealed there can be no limit on immigration if we remain in the EU. He was right.
June 20, 2016
David Cameron fails to veto Turkish membership
Last night David Cameron repeatedly refused to say that he would veto Turkey joining the EU. That’s because - in his own words - he is the ‘strongest possible advocate’ of Turkey joining.
Cameron has said before that he is ‘angry’ that it is taking too long for Turkey to join. The EU has recently accelerated talks with Turkey with David Cameron’s support and UK taxpayers are sending £1 billion to Turkey to help them join.
The EU has announced it is accelerating Turkish accession with unanimous support (European Commission, 15 June 2016, link).
Jeremy Corbyn tells the truth: you can have no upper limit on immigration in the EU
Jeremy Corbyn admitted yesterday that it is impossible to have limits on free movement of people and to remain a member of the EU. He’s right (BBC News, June 2016, link).
Vote Leave’s Chair, Gisela Stuart, has said that David Cameron's impossible pledge to reduce net migration to below 100,000 must be abandoned if we vote to stay - it’s impossible so long as we remain in the EU and it is dishonest to pretend otherwise (BBC News, June 2016, link).
New tax raid on Britain if we vote to stay
If we vote to stay on Thursday, Brussels will scrap our remaining low rates of VAT. This could costs £2,649 per household. Unelected bureaucrats are deliberately holding back decisions like this until after the referendum (Daily Express, 20 June 2016, link).
We should have the power to set our own tax rates in this country rather than being told what to do by the EU.
If we Vote Leave, we can scrap VAT on household energy bills, which will be a major boost to working families.
Business is split on the EU
The IN campaign are becoming increasingly desperate. They needed to be well ahead in the polls by this stage. They are now rolling out business names that they have already announced.
The big business supporters they are rolling out have a history of getting it wrong - Richard Branson, for example, called for us to join the euro and the European Army. It would have been a disaster if we had listened to these big businesses then and it will be a disaster if we listen to them now.
Top British brands like JCB and Dyson are supporting Vote Leave. BSE have Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Who do you trust?
We don’t condone Farage’s poster - but we need a sensible border policy
Vote Leave has nothing to do with the ‘Breaking Point’ poster. We believe that the UK is an open and tolerant nation that had been made better and stronger by immigration. We should be proud of our record in helping refugees.
If we Vote Leave on Thursday, we will be able to introduce the Australian-style points system the public support and taking back powers over our economy and trade.
Baroness Warsi claims to have left Vote Leave. We never realised she was involved.
There is only one poll that matters
Different polls are showing different results. The fact is that our voters are more motivated because the other side failed to make a positive case and are just reheating the same scare stories that they used during the euro debate.
We are confident that when people enter the booth to vote on Thursday, they will opt to Vote Leave and take back control of our democracy, our money and our borders.
The Government thought they’d be ten-twenty points ahead by this point, but the public have seen through their hollow renegotiation and scare stories. So long as we keep making our positive case over these last 72 hours, we will win on Thursday. June 10, 2016
More top Labour voices say they’re going to Vote Leave
Labour MPs John Mann and Denis Skinner have come out in support of a ‘Leave’ vote (The Sun, June 2016, link).
Labour voters should Vote Leave. The EU is a disaster for our NHS, for our schools and for the cost of living. Polling shows that Britons - including Labour voters - believe that uncontrolled immigration has been bad for them (Daily Mail, June 2016, link)
The latest dodgy dossier from pro-EU Labour MPs will fail to convince - like the other IN dossiers, it will be seen through. It is based on discredited studies.
Vote Leave wins the ITV debate!
Andrea Leadsom, Gisela Stuart and Boris Johnson set out an articulate, positive vision for Britain’s life outside the EU (Daily Telegraph, June 2016, link).
Last night the mask slipped and we saw the real face of the IN campaign - reduced to personal attacks with no clear argument or vision. They could not justify why we should give £350 million to the EU every week while our NHS is in crisis.
It was telling that, despite being given repeated opportunities to set out how they’d control immigration inside the EU, they couldn’t offer any ideas.
We have the positive case, the facts and the vision for this country to succeed. All the other side have is personal attacks and increasingly desperate scare stories. Polling shows that the public sees through them.
The EU undermines our security
The Security Minister, John Hayes, has written an important article, stating that the EU is guilty of ‘grand scheming’ and trying to ‘appropriate power’ (Daily Telegraph, June 2016, link).
John Hayes also makes the key point that Britain is able to combat terrorism ‘at a more global level than most, for example through the Five Eyes intelligence sharing arrangement with the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand’. EU membership undermines our membership of Five Eyes.
Because of the European Court, we either have to disclose information which could damage national security to suspected terrorists, or allow them into the UK (Daily Mail, 19 May 2016, link). The European Court is a threat to our security.
If we Vote Leave on 23 June, we can introduce emergency legislation after the referendum to stop the European Court interfering with national security. That’s the safer choice.
BSE’s scaremongering failing to cut through
New polling from yesterday shows that, while the vast majority of people (63%) believe that leaving the EU will allow us to take back control of our borders, only a tiny minority (25%) think that their personal finances will suffer if we Vote Leave (Guardian, June 2016, link).
We are the underdogs, but we are winning the arguments. Undecideds were overwhelmingly supportive of Leave arguments last night (The Times, June 2016, link).
June 17, 2016
Campaigning suspended after the murder of Jo Cox, MP
June 16, 2016
Senior Conservative slam ‘ludicrous scaremongering’
Two former Conservative leaders and two former Conservative Chancellors have dismissed the Treasury and the Bank of England’s interventions in the referendum debate as ‘ludicrous scaremongering’ (Daily Telegraph, 15 June 2016, link).
The facts are that we send £350 million a week to the EU and do not control our borders and our laws. The IN campaign’s claims are guesswork based on dishonest assumptions.
David Cameron challenged on Turkey
David Cameron has been challenged to veto the continuation of Turkish accession talks today (Telegraph, 16 June 2016, link).
If he fails to do so, voters will conclude the only way to prevent us having a common border with Turkey is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Cameron’s claims that Turkey isn’t joining are desperate spin. The Turkish Government yesterday dismissed them ‘as rhetoric to reassure voters’ (The Times, 16 June 2016, link). The only way to stop it is to take back control and Vote Leave on 23 June.
IN campaign’s divisions on free movement exposed
The Home Secretary, Theresa May, has said that she wants to make changes to full movement rules (BBC News, June 2016, link).
We welcome the fact that the Home Secretary has acknowledged the fact that the Prime Minister’s deal is inadequate - but the simple fact is that her proposals are impossible so long as we are within the EU.
This directly contradicts what George Osborne said yesterday when he said that there were ‘no’ plans to change free movement rules (Daily Mail, June 2016, link).
The Prime Minister promised to ‘get what Britain needs’ on free movement, but he has failed. This was our last chance. The only way to take back control of our borders and create an Australian points system is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
The Bank of England has lost all its credibility in this debate. We should not listen to its scaremongering.
We expect Mark Carney to wade back into the EU debate today. He should think very carefully before making a political statement.
The Governor’s recent statements have been extremely concerning. It would be unthinkable for the Bank of England to comment on political parties’ manifestos before an election. It should not take a position in the referendum.
The Governor’s position is not justified by the Bank’s own research. The Bank of England has stated that there is ‘little evidence across the range of indicators that… uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU had much affected job creation’ (Bank of England, April 2016, link).
We also expect George Osborne to try and scare the British people again today. He has lost the support of nearly 70 MPs - he won’t be able to carry out of his plans to punish the electorate if they don’t vote the way he wants them to.
There is even more evidence that the EU’s migrant crisis is out of control
The Daily Mail reports today that even more migrants have been caught entering the UK from the EU (Daily Mail, June 2016, link).
If we vote to stay in the EU the situation will get worse. The rogue European Court has ruled that France cannot imprison migrants trying to reach Britain illegally through the Channel Tunnel who illegally entered France from another Schengen country (The Times, 8 June 2016, link). Instead, illegal migrants have up to a month to leave France voluntarily.
Attempts to enter the UK using forged documents are up 70% (Frontex, April 2016, link).
The only way to take back control of our borders is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Our cities will be stronger if we Vote Leave
The IN campaign are dragging up arguments that they made months ago - they’re desperate. Their campaign is on the rocks, the public has seen through their scaremongering and they have no positive arguments to make.
We are net contributors to the EU budget. After we Vote Leave we will ensure that people who currently receive EU funding will still get money. No-one will lose out.
June 15, 2016
Vote Leave sets out its programme for taking back control
Today, Vote leave is setting out a framework for taking back control from the EU after we Vote Leave on 23 June to give effect to the public’s decision. This will involve informal negotiations, formal negotiations and legislative steps, both in the current session and the rest of the Parliament (BBC News, June 2016, link).
After we Vote Leave, there will be a series of legislative changes which will come into force by the date of the next general election: ending the supremacy of EU law, scrapping VAT on domestic fuel, creating the Australian-style points-based system the public overwhelmingly support, restoring powers to make our own trade deals and guaranteeing an additional £100 million per week for the NHS.
All the main obstacles to negotiating a trade deal are absent: there are currently no tariffs and regulation is equivalent, so a new deal can be struck very quickly. Three years and ten months is ample time to get a good deal.
We are confident that MPs will vote to give effect to the will of the British people. If we Vote Leave on 23 June, we will have voted to leave the EU and its so-called ‘single market’, allowing us to introduce the Australian-style points system the public support and taking back powers over our economy and trade.
A full Q&A is attached to this email.
The Chancellor should stop talking Britain down
The Chancellor has made a serious mistake by throwing this temper tantrum and promising to break many manifesto pledges today. His threats are not credible (Spectator, June 2016, link).
This is a campaign tactic, not a genuine budget proposal. With nothing positive to say for the last week, the remain campaign’s tactics of fear are clear.
Parliament would never accept the Chancellor’s proposals - most MPs would refuse to vote for a budget that clearly breaks many of the promises we made to the electorate at the last election.
Even if you accept the dodgy forecasts the Chancellor is using as the premise for his budget, the fiscal policy response would be wrong. It is clear that these proposals are only designed for scary headlines.
The Government made promises in its manifesto regarding spending and taxes that should be kept.
57 Conservative MPs have announced that they will not vote for such a budget and believe Osborne’s position would be untenable if he attempted to introduce it.
The Labour IN campaign has no position on immigration
Yesterday saw Tom Watson claim that a future Labour Government would renegotiate Britain’s EU membership to introduce immigration controls. These claims were immediately disowned by Jeremy Corbyn (Buzzfeed, June 2016, link). Like the rest of the remain campaign, Labour IN have no credible plan on immigration.
The Prime Minister promised to ‘get what Britain needs’ on free movement, but the European Commission and the European Court have exactly the same powers over the UK as they did before the renegotiation (Vote Leave, March 2016, link). The EU has made clear that it will not give us a better deal on immigration.
The renegotiation was the chance to secure changes - it failed. The only way to control our borders is to Vote Leave on 23 June and introduce a Australian-style points-based system.
Vote Leave for a stronger NHS
The IN campaign’s claims about the NHS are simply not credible. The NHS is in need of more money. In 2015-2016, NHS providers in England recorded a deficit of £2.45 billion (NHS Improvement, 26 May 2016, link) - but every week we send £350 million to the EU.
If we Vote Leave, we could use the savings from the UK’s contributions to the EU budget to give the NHS an extra £100 million cash injection per week by 2020.
Lord Rose makes a rare public appearance
We are very pleased to see Lord Rose has been allowed to return to the debate (Guardian, June 2016, link).
We have always welcomed the BSE campaign’s chairman’s contribution to the EU debate - especially his acknowledgement that wages would go up if we Vote Leave and that there wouldn’t be any sudden changes. We wish him well
June 14, 2016
June 13, 2016
Leaked cables reveal Government plans to offer Turks visa free travel to UK
It was revealed over the weekend that the FCO is pushing for visa-free access for Turkey to the EU (Sunday Times, June 2016, link).
Turkey is an EU candidate country, it’s membership application is being accelerated by Brussels and the UK is spending £1 billion helping Turkey prepare for membership.
If Turkey joins, along with Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia, an extra 80 million people will be added to the EU. The pressure on our NHS will be only grow. It’s safer to Vote Leave.
You can’t trust Gordon Brown
All of Gordon Brown’s claims today are bogus. The EU has destroyed jobs - if we Vote Leave, we can create 300,000 new jobs through new trade deals. The EU keeps fuel bills high through VAT which we will scrap if we Vote Leave. The European Court facilitates tax avoidance - HMRC is due to pay out up to £43 billion to big businesses by 2021 due to its rulings.
The Labour IN campaign are in panic - their supporters have seen through the BSE campaign’s claims and are now saying that they will Vote Leave.
Labour IN campaigners have no answer to the question of how they will control immigration if we stay in the EU. A fund with a few million will make no difference - people don’t want gesture politics, they want solutions. The only solution is to Vote Leave and introduce an Australian-style points-based system.
We know that Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell are eurosceptic. They’re with the majority of Labour voters.
Mike Rake is untrustworthy
The BSE campaign are in a panic so they’re getting the CBI to bully businesses into writing intimidating letters to their employees. We should expect more firms to follow BT’s example (BBC News, June 2016, link).
Mike Rake and Gavin Patterson never wanted their employees to have a say - they opposed a referendum.
Mike Rake was one of the main advocates of Britain joining the euro. He is making the same warnings now that he made fifteen years ago when he was trying to bully us into joining the single currency. He was wrong then and he is wrong now.
Top British brands like JCB and Dyson are supporting Vote Leave. BSE have Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Who do you trust?
Mandelson and Javid make desperate pro-EU statement
Sajid Javid and Lord Mandelson are claiming that we want to emulate other countries’ trading relationships with the EU.
We have always said that we want our own British deal. The idea that there would be a trade war between Britain and the EU is for the birds. The EU sells us far more than we sell to them. They need a deal more than we do.
Javid and Mandelson are misrepresenting Vote Leave’s position because they have no idea how to respond to our positive vision and can’t justify sending £350 million a week to the EU.
It’s very disappointing to see Sajid Javid sharing a platform with prominent supporters of the euro.
Five positive reasons to Vote Leave
We should spend our money on our priorities. We send over £350 million every week to Brussels. That’s enough money to build a brand new hospital every week. It’s half England’s schools budget, four times Scotland’s schools budget, and four times our science budget. We should spend our money on our priorities like the NHS, not the EU.
Let’s take back control over our borders. At the moment a quarter of a million Europeans come here every year - that’s a city the size of Newcastle and puts a big strain on public services. We can’t stop criminals coming here from Europe and we can’t deport terror suspects because the European Court is in charge.
The risky option is voting to stay in the EU. A vote to remain means that Brussels will take more power and money every year - this is the real threat to jobs and security. It will mean bailing out the euro the next time it goes wrong. The EU’s migrant crisis is out of control and it plans to allow in more countries like Turkey, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. It means a growing strain on public services like the NHS, school places, and housing.
We should be able to kick out the people who make our laws. Half of our laws are now made by EU politicians in Brussels who we never voted for. The EU is good for those who’ve already got power and money like the big banks - it isn’t good for the millions of people on PAYE. We have very little say in the EU - they don’t listen to us. The Eurozone has a permanent majority in the EU voting system. Every time we have tried to stop a new EU law we have been defeated. We should be able to kick out the people who make our laws.
Let’s take back control over our economy and trade. The EU has too much control over our economy. Only 5% of businesses export to the EU but 100% are caught by EU red tape. If we take back control we can run our economy in the interests of millions of small businesses and entrepreneurs. We will also be able to take back control over trade so that we can do deals with fast growing countries like China and India - this will help business create more jobs.
June 9, 2016
Vote Leave lines to take: 09 June 2016
Days until referendum: 14
Business leaders say Vote Leave
Lord Bamford, the Chairman of JCB, has written to his 6,500 employees saying that Britain will be better off if we Vote Leave, saying he is ‘very confident that we can stand on our own two feet’ (The Times, 9 June 2016, link).
The truth is that big business is divided, but small and medium companies, which make up 99% of British businesses and employ 15 million staff, are hostile to the EU and its ‘single market’ and want the UK Government in control of trade policy.
EU regulation costs UK business £600 million every week. Business will benefit if we Vote Leave and take back control.
We welcome voter deadline extension
People will only have one chance to vote on whether they share free movement of people with Turkey, so the more people who register to vote on 23 June the better and we welcome the extension of the registration deadline.
It is particularly important given how few young people normally vote and we hope that this referendum will be different.
However, we are deeply concerned that thousands of EU nationals have been voting in this referendum already, and that the Electoral Commission has taken no action.
BSE campaign in panic over Turkey
Yesterday George Osborne failed to rule out vetoing Turkish membership of the EU, merely stating that it won’t happen ‘today’.
In a panicked press release put out late last night, the IN campaign claimed: ‘The Leave campaign cannot point to a single expert who thinks Turkey will join the EU in decades’. Clearly they do not think the Prime Minister, the Chancellor and European Commission are experts.
The facts are clear: Turkey is a candidate country, it’s membership application is being accelerated by the EU and the UK is spending £1 billion helping Turkey prepare for membership.
If Turkey joins, along with Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia, an extra 80 million people will be added to the EU. The pressure on our NHS will be intolerable. It’s safer to Vote Leave.
Vote Leave to strengthen the UK
John Major and Tony Blair will today make a joint statement claiming that the peace process might be compromised if we Vote Leave.
It is ridiculous scaremongering to suggest that the Peace Process would be put at risk if we Vote Leave. The pro-EU Northern Ireland Minister, Ben Wallace, has said: ‘I just do not think it would be put at risk if we left the EU’ (Evidence to Northern Ireland Affairs Committee, 23 March 2016, link).
The Irish Ambassador to London, Daniel Mulhall, has said ‘the arrangements under the Common Travel Area’ would ‘still apply fully’ if the UK voted to leave (Embassy of Ireland in Great Britain, July 2015, link).
Polling shows that the majority of Scots believe there shouldn’t be another independence referendum if we Vote Leave. The SNP Government failed to win a mandate for a second referendum and is not planning one if we Vote Leave because ‘they don’t think they can win’ (Scotsman, June 2016, link).
We do send £350m a week to the EU
The ONS says £19.1bn is ‘debited’ from the UK Government each year in favour of the EU institutions (£367.4m per week). £350m is an underestimate.
When someone talks about pay, they give the gross figure, not the amount minus taxes and National Insurance. The Remain campaign try to claim that the money we get back is European money. It’s not, it’s British taxpayers money. This is why we use the gross figure - it’s the money we have lost control over.
We wish Sarah well and after we Vote Leave, we’ll end the threat of free movement of people from Turkey and spend at least £100 million a week on the NHS, saved from the £350 million minimum it costs us every week.
June 8, 2016
Rogue European Court is a danger to our security and borders.
The rogue European Court has ruled that France cannot imprison migrants trying to reach Britain illegally through the Channel Tunnel who illegally entered France from another Schengen country (The Times, 8 June 2016, link).
Instead, illegal migrants have up to a month to leave France voluntarily.
Attempts to enter the UK using forged documents are up 70% (Frontex, April 2016, link).
In two separate rulings, the European Court also made it harder for the UK to remove asylum seekers to safe countries.
These rulings threaten the integrity of our borders, and create serious risks for our security. The only way to take back control from the Court is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
There is no evidence for capital flight.
Even the Financial Times, which wanted the pound scrapped, admits the evidence for capital flight from UK banks is ‘feeble’ (Financial Times, June 2016, link).
Experts have said that the growing prospect of a ‘leave’ vote is not unnerving their investors (CNBC, June 2016, link).
Bond yields have fallen since the announcement of the referendum, suggesting international investors retain confidence in the UK’s ability to finance its budget deficit. Ten year bond yields are currently 1.267%. This is down from 1.960% on 1 January (Bloomberg, 7 June 2016, link).
EU loophole leads to higher non-EU migration.
Home Office figures show 30,000 non-EU migrants are entering Britain using EU family permits, up by 50% under David Cameron (Daily Mail, 8 June 2016, link).
It is a myth that we still have control of immigration from outside the EU.
The only way to get back control of our borders and introduce a fair, Australian-style points-based immigration system is to Vote Leave.
Cameron told five untruths in his debate last night.
David Cameron claimed EU jobseekers must leave after six months. This is not true. The Government admitted in December that many jobseekers could remain for longer than six months (House of Commons, 2 December 2015, link).
David Cameron claimed we can turn anyone away who is a threat. This is wrong. There is no proposal to amend the Treaties or the 2004 Free Movement Directive. The proposals agreed at the European Council will be contained ‘in a Communication’ to be issued by the European Commission (European Council, 19 February 2016, link). This has no legal status.
David Cameron said he is putting an additional £12 billion into the NHS - actually he’s only putting an extra £8 billion at most (ITV News, April 2015, link). If we Vote Leave we can put an extra £100 million into the NHS every week.
David Cameron claimed he got what he wanted on benefits. In his manifesto, he said ‘If an EU migrant’s child is living abroad, then they should receive no child benefit or child tax credit’ (Conservative Manifesto 2015 link). The export of child benefit will continue after his deal.
David Cameron claims he got a substantial renegotiation. In fact, no powers will be brought back by his deal. The Decision states that: ‘the competences conferred by the Member States on the Union can be modified, whether to increase or reduce them, only through a revision of the Treaties with the agreement of all Member States.’ Since there will be no Treaty, no powers will be returned to the UK.
Remain are in panic. That’s why they’re calling emergency press conferences.
David Cameron called a press conference yesterday with just 90 minutes notice to attack Vote Leave because, he claimed, he was concerned about what had been on TV the night before.
The In campaign is in a blind panic. David Cameron’s renegotiation was a failure: no-one believes he got a deal worth the paper it was written on. Now people are rejecting his campaign of fear.
David Cameron and George Osborne have both admitted that they have given up our right to veto future EU treaties, that the EU has ignored us in the past over bailouts and they know their guarantees on the renegotiation are about as trustworthy as their mate Nick Clegg’s pledges on tuition fees.
The Prime Minister knows his case is weak. That’s why he keeps refusing to take part in a head-to-head debate with Vote Leave.
We are extremely worried about the Electoral Commission’s website going down last night.
We want as many people to vote in this referendum as possible. We know that the more people pay attention to the EU debate, the more likely they are to Vote Leave.
June 7, 2016
EU membership is a danger to our security
· Vote Leave has this morning published a dossier of 50 criminals that the EU has kept in the UK. This includes rapists, murderers and drug traffickers (Daily Telegraph, 7 June 2016, link).
· EU law has meant that we are unable to deport people like Learco Chindamo, who murdered headmaster Philip Lawrence. David Cameron once said it was ‘complete madness’ that Chindamo couldn’t be removed (ITN, 21 August 2007, link). He is still in the UK, because of the European Court.
· If we Vote Leave, we can immediately protect our security by introducing emergency legislation to allow us to remove foreign nationals whose presence here isn’t conducive to the public good. That’s the safer choice on 23 June.
EU rules delay testing of breast cancer
· Thousands of breast cancer sufferers are being denied access to a life saving drug approved in America due to EU red tape (Daily Mail, 7 June 2016, link).
· The EU’s Clinical Trials Directive has already doubled the cost of cancer research (Hearn & Sullivan, 2007, link).
· It is much safer to take back control on 23 June and give the NHS a £100 million per week cash transfusion with the money we save.
Pro-euro MPs attempt to keep UK in the ‘single market’ if we Vote Leave
· It has been suggested pro-EU fanatic MPs will attempt to keep the UK in the EU ‘single market’ if we Vote Leave (The Times, 7 June 2016, link).
· If we Vote Leave on 23 June, the people will have demanded that the UK takes back control of its borders. The public wants an Australian-style points system for immigration.
· Any attempts to ignore the result of the referendum would be an affront to democracy.
· The pro-Brussels campaign is hitting the buffers: already it is trying to work out how to frustrate the will of the people on 23 June. They cannot be trusted.
Hitachi makes claims it has already admitted are untrue
· Hitachi has claimed it might reopen its investments in the UK in the event of a leave vote (Daily Mirror, 6 June 2006, link).
· This is odd, as the company admitted in January that it would stay in the UK and that ‘we cannot say Brexit is the wrong way’ (Daily Telegraph, 31 January 2016, link). In September last year, it said as long as free trade was maintained they would stay in the UK: ‘For us, the most important thing is free trade relationships between the UK and other countries’ (The Times, 21 September 2015, link).
· Hitachi spends as much as €1.25 million each year lobbying the Commission (European Commission, 25 May 2016, link).
· Sir Stephen Gomersall, who is now Hitachi’s Group Chairman for Europe, said in 2000 that it was ‘not a safe bet' to stay out the euro and that refusing to scrap the pound would lead to ‘disinvestment’ (Daily Mail, 21 March 2014, link).
· It is safer to take back control of our economy and our trade on 23 June.
More tenuous claims about impact of a leave vote
· Sajid Javid and Lord Mandelson will today claim the UK would face £34 billion in non-tariff barriers if we Vote Leave (Daily Express, 7 June 2016, link).
· Sajid Javid used to be very critical of the EU’s effect on the economy, while Lord Mandelson is rehashing arguments he used to make when he was trying to scrap the pound.
· With momentum shifting in favour of leaving the EU, we are seeing yet more random numbers from the 'In' camp. The fact is that British companies already face non-tariff barriers when they export to the so-called ‘single market’ (European Parliament, 26 May 2016, link).
· We will strike a free trade deal, meaning these costs will not arise. Modern free trade agreements have sensible provisions to overcome non-tariff barriers: our deal will have similar provisions.
Sterling and the referendum
· There are questions in the press about the value of sterling and the EU referendum (Daily Telegraph, 6 June 2016, link).
· It is worrying that George Osborne and his pro-EU Governor of the Bank of England’s campaign to talk down the pound appears to be having some success.
· The real economy appears largely unaffected by their relentless campaign to do down the economy. Bond yields are unchanged.
June 6, 2016
Vote to stay and get landed with a £2.4 billion bill
New research shows that there is a £20 billion black hole in the EU’s budget - the EU faces billions in bills and now needs to pay up. The UK contributes just under 13% of the EU budget, so is liable for £2.4bn (The Times, 6 June 2016, link).
The EU will review its budget this year, but has delayed it until after the referendum ‘because any new proposals would provide ammunition for the camp campaigning against UK’s membership in the European Union’. This shows the risks of remaining in the EU (Euractiv, January 2016, link).
The European Parliament is clear that it wants to see a big increase in the EU’s spending. If we vote to stay we will be giving them a green light to spend more and more of our money.
A detailed Q&A is attached to this email.
Left wing voters should Vote Leave
It is the UK Parliament - not the EU - that has advanced workers’ and other people's rights. The UK had legislation on paid holidays before we joined the EU. The Holidays with Pay Act 1938 was passed in July 1938, creating a right to paid holidays (Holidays with Pay Act 1938, 29 July 1938, link).
The Wilson Government passed the Equal Pay Act 1970 before it entered the then European Economic Community in 1973. The Labour Government passed the Sex Discrimination Act 1975, before the first EU Directive on the topic was adopted (Directive 1976/207/EEC, link). There is no need to be in the EU to ensure equal pay for equal work.
Natalie Bennett has said ‘There is a huge democratic deficit in [the EU’s] functioning, a serious bias towards the interests of neoliberalism and 'the market', and central institutions have been overbuilt’ (Green Party, January 2013, link). She was right then, and wrong now.
Harriet Harman was asked to identify any one of seven top EU officials. She failed to recognise any of them, stating ‘I do not know who they are and I don’t like the fact that they’re all men’. She later asked whether the photos of the top officials ‘have you just picked them at random?’ (BBC Sunday Politics, May 2016, link). We should not listen to her on the EU.
We will debate the issues, not personalities
The BSE campaign and No. 10 are in panic. They know they are losing the arguments, so they are now engaging in personal attacks - they have nothing left to argue.
We know we have the stronger case. Our campaign is positive and focused on the issues.
We’re going to play the ball, not the man. We are going to make the positive case that we should take back control of our democracy, our borders and the £350m we send to the EU every week.
Vote Leave releases five key pledges
Vote Leave has set out five promises to the British public:
Our Money - Give the NHS at least £100 million more every week
The NHS is in need of more money. In 2015-2016, NHS providers in England recorded a deficit of £2.45 billion (NHS Improvement, 26 May 2016, link). In March, 265,834 persons waited more than four hours in accident and emergency wards, up from 33,184 in August 2010. 12.7% of all persons attending A&E now wait for more than four hours (NHS England, April 2016, link).
If we Vote Leave, we could use the savings from the UK’s contributions to the EU budget to give the NHS an extra £100 million cash injection per week by 2020.
This will mean that the NHS will only have to make around 1.5% net efficiency gains each year, rather than the 2% currently planned, a much more realistic target (NHS England, October 2014, link; The King’s Fund, July 2015, link). As a result, pressure on the NHS and its financial position will be considerably improved.
2) Our Economy - Control over trade policy could create 300,000 jobs
The EU’s failure to conclude just five trade agreements with the United States, Japan, ASEAN, India and Mercosur has, according to the European Commission’s own figures, cost the UK 284,341 jobs (Vote Leave, 12 May 2016, link).
After we Vote Leave, we will immediately be able to start negotiating new trade deals which could enter into force straight after the UK leaves the EU. As a member of the EU, we are forbidden from striking our own trade deals.
It will be possible to strike these agreements quickly. Oxford Economics has said that ‘an analysis of regional trade deals conducted over the past 20 years found an average duration of 28 months’ (Oxford Economics, 2016, link).
3) Our Borders - A new points-based immigration system
At present, all EU citizens have the right to come to the UK regardless of their skills or even whether they have a job offer. If we Vote Leave, this will end. EU citizens will be subject to UK, not EU immigration legislation. A new Australian-style points-based system will be created by 2020, under which persons will be admitted to the UK on the basis of their skills and ability to speak English. This will end the discrimination against non-EU nationals which is the hallmark of the present system.
There will be no change for Irish citizens or EU citizens lawfully resident in the UK on the date of exit. The European Court’s control of asylum will also end.
4) Our Security - Deport dangerous foreign criminals
If we Vote Leave, we will immediately amend the European Communities Act 1972 to end the rogue European Court’s control over who we can deport.
This will allow the deportation of EU citizens whose presence is not conducive to the public good, enabling us to remove violent killers, rapists and terrorists, regardless of what the European Court says.
We will also amend the European Communities Act 1972 immediately to end the European Court’s jurisdiction over our intelligence services and armed forces (Vote Leave, 8 May 2016, link).
5) Our Taxes - Cut VAT on household energy bills
EU law prevents the UK from cutting value added tax on household energy bills (Council Directive 2006/112/EC, link). This hits the least wealthy households the hardest, which spend on average three times as much of their income on energy as the wealthiest households (ONS, 8 December 2015, link).
If we Vote Leave, we will be able to scrap this unfair and damaging tax. This would save the average household £64 a year (ONS, 8 December 2015, link). This £1.7 billion tax cut could easily be paid for using savings from the UK’s contributions to the EU budget.
We will also amend the European Communities Act 1972 immediately to end payouts to multinationals. The UK is paying billions to big business in tax refunds because of EU law (Sunday Times, 10 April 2016, link).
June 3, 2016
David Cameron faces voters for first time in car crash debate
Yesterday, David Cameron faced real voters for the first time in the campaign in the Sky debate and it was not pretty (Daily Telegraph, 3 June 2016, link).
Cameron was unable to explain if or when he would meet his pledge to cut migration to the tens of thousands (Conservative Party, 2015, link). The more people hear of David Cameron's trivial deal, the less they like it.
The audience saw through his scaremongering about economic catastrophe and armageddon if we Vote Leave and accused him of ‘waffling’ on Turkey, whose membership of the EU he still supports (Hansard, 19 October 2015, col. 661, link).
The Justice Secretary, Michael Gove, will today make the positive and optimistic case for why we will be stronger and safer if we take back control on 23 June.
EU criminals still in the UK
A damning report from the Commons Home Affairs Committee has revealed that thousands of convicted felons from other EU member states are walking the streets of Britain (Daily Mail, 3 June 2016, link).
This is despite an EU prisoner transfer agreement designed to stop this. Even pro-EU MPs on the Committee conceded that this was reason to question Britain’s membership of the EU.
We cannot even exclude persons our courts have concluded were involved in terrorism.
The only way to take back control of our borders and remove those whose are a danger to society is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Foreign Governments intervene on behalf of Number 10
The leaders of Germany, Spain, Ireland and the Netherlands have all warned of the costs to the UK of taking back control on 23 June (Financial Times, 2 June 2016, link).
The fact is that the EU sells us £68 billion more in goods and services than we sell them, so they will want a trade deal when we Vote Leave (ONS, March 2016, link).
The only cost will be for other EU countries like Germany, who will have to pick up the tab for the £350 million we send to Brussels each week.
Electoral Commission admits EU citizens given ballot papers
The Electoral Commission has admitted that some EU citizens have been sent ballot papers in a ‘systems issue’ (Guardian, 2 June 2016, link).
This raises serious questions about the integrity of the ballot. The Electoral Commission and the Government urgently need to come clean about the scale of this problem.
Osborne doing down service sector
George Osborne will today warn that 400,000 jobs in the services sector will be lost if we take back control (The Times, 3 June 2016, link).
This latest attempt to do down the British economy by the Chancellor will convince no one. Not even the European Commission can find evidence that the EU benefits service exports (European Commission, January 2007, link).
The EU and its ‘single market’ don’t benefit small companies or families on PAYE, but they do benefit the multinationals who appear with the Chancellor today. Just six of them spend as much as €5.45 million lobbying the Commission each year.
The only way to take back control of our economy, trade and the £350 million we send to Brussels each week is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
June 2, 2016
Young people will find it harder to get on the housing ladder if the UK stays in the EU
The former Defence Secretary, Liam Fox, will today make an appeal to younger voters, warning that uncontrolled migration puts pressure on housing, increasing rents and competition to buy homes (BBC News, June 2016, link).
Figures show that most new immigrants move into the private rented sector. Competition for rented accommodation obliges all those in the private rented sector to pay high rents - which take a large share of income and makes it much harder to get on the property ladder.
There is also no realistic possibility that money would be found to fund the extra infrastructure needed to match migration levels if the UK voted to stay in the EU.
Points-based system would boost state pensions
An independent report for the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries has shown a points-based migration system could cut migration and generate billions for pensions (Daily Mail, 2 June 2016, link).
By 2057, the pensions system would be billions of pounds in surplus if a non-discriminatory skills-based immigration system were introduced.
This is the final nail in the coffin for David Cameron’s claims that pensioners would be hit if we take back control. Voting to leave and introducing a controlled immigration system would be better for pensioners.
Labour voters should Vote Leave
There is ongoing debate about where Labour voters stand (BBC News, June 2016, link). The EU is a disaster for our NHS, for our schools and household prices. New polling shows that Britons - including Labour voters - believe that uncontrolled immigration has been a disaster (Daily Mail, June 2016, link)
Real progress for workers has come from the UK Parliament, not the EU.
The minimum wage has nothing to do with the EU - it was the last Labour Government that introduced it and the current Conservative Government that is increasing it to a living wage.
The UK has long legislated for workers rights’ in the Equal Pay Act and the Sex Discrimination Act, for example. We do not need the EU to protect these.
Osborne’s letter to Vote Leave is an attempt to deflect from the immigration debate
George Osborne and Lord Darling have written to Vote Leave to ask for some clarification on our policies.
This is an obvious attempt to distract from the fact that the Britain Stronger in Europe (BSE) campaign has nothing to say about the fact that being in the EU means that we have to have an open border with the rest of the EU and that migration is out of control. In the last year alone 77,000 EU migrants came to the UK looking for a job - despite the PM’s promise in 2014 to stop this.
The BSE campaign let the cat out of the bag yesterday when their Director of Strategy, Ryan Coetzee, wrote on Twitter that ‘No policy on immigration is the right policy’ (Twitter, June 2016, link).
June 1, 2016
Vote Leave for a Australian-style points-based migration system
Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, Priti Patel and Gisela Stuart will today set out Vote Leave’s new promise - to introduce a Australian-style points-based system for all new migrants if we Vote Leave on 23 June (BBC News, June 2016, link)
If we Vote Leave, the automatic right of all EU citizens to enter the UK will end. At present, every EU citizen has a right to enter the UK (Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU), art. 20, link). Following a vote to leave, this automatic right will be terminated.
If we Vote Leave, a new Australian-style points-based system will be created by 2020 - under which persons will be admitted to the UK on the basis of their skills and ability to speak English.
There will be no change for Irish citizens or EU citizens lawfully resident in the UK on the date of exit. The European Court’s control of asylum will also end.
Extra notes are attached to this email.
Workers will be better off if we Vote Leave
The TUC’s claims today about wages are untrue. The EU has been a disaster for workers, with unemployment in the double digits across the Eurozone and harsh austerity measures implemented at the expense of vital public services.
The head of the In campaign Lord Rose has himself said that workers will get a pay rise if we Vote Leave (Evidence to Treasury Committee, 2 March 2016, link). And as the Bank of England has confirmed, uncontrolled immigration has played a key role in bringing down wages (Bank of England, December 2015, link).
IMF economists admit that recent warnings about a leave vote are flawed
A former senior International Monetary Fund economist says the arguments that leaving the EU would cause permanent damage to the UK are not supported by evidence (Independent, 1 June 2016, link).
The IMF has constantly been wrong. They warned in 2013 that the UK economy was going to crash - but just 12 months later they had to eat their own words. We should not listen to them.
In April 1999, ‘Britain’s top academic economists’ voted strongly in favour of switching from the pound to the euro. Mercifully, the government had better sense. We should not listen to their scaremongering today. They were wrong then and they are wrong now.
Even EU President now admits Brussels is out of touch
European Council president Donald Tusk has warned that the EU elite have alienated the people of Europe and have driven up support for leaving the EU - not just in Britain, but across the whole EU (Daily Telegraph, June 2016, link). He’s right.
If we Vote Leave, we will be able to show our European friends and allies what can be achieved under a democratic system. That will inspire big changes in the EU that will be good for Europe.
May 31, 2016
Vote Leave to cut VAT
Gisela Stuart, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have penned an article calling for a cut in VAT on domestic fuel if we Vote Leave (The Sun, 31 May 2016, link).
EU law prevents the UK from cutting value added tax on household energy bills. This hits the least wealthy households, who spend on average three times as much of their income on energy as the wealthiest, the hardest.
If we Vote Leave, we will be able to scrap this unfair and damaging tax. This would save the average household £64 a year.
This £1.7 billion tax could easily be paid for using savings from the UK’s net contributions to the EU budget.
The BSE campaign has accused us of making £111 billion of unfunded spending pledges. This is absolutely untrue - they have invented pledges that do not exist. What is clear is that if we Vote Leave we will be able to spend billions of pounds on our priorities.
Small businesses will be better off if we Vote Leave
Sajid Javid will today claim that 1.2 million small businesses export to the EU. This is based on extremely dodgy maths - even BSE used to claim that just 200,000 (3.7%) of UK businesses traded with the EU.
BSE are inflating all their figures because their scare stories aren’t working and they are panicking.
The note itself accepts its figures are ‘indicative estimates’. We cannot trust these numbers. Just one in twenty British businesses exports to the EU.
There are questions over whether the Government is breaking purdah by providing BSE with ‘new’ figures. At the very least, it shows the Government refusing to honour the spirit of a fair referendum campaign.
The EU’s no-border policy is making us less safe
The weekend saw migrants trying to cross the English channel to access the UK. We are not safe so long as we remain members of the EU (Daily Mail, May 2016, link).
The EU body charged with managing Europe’s external borders, Frontex, has admitted that there were a record 1.82 million illegal crossings into the EU last year, six times more than in 2014 (Daily Mail, April 2016, link).
Other leading experts have said that the EU’s open border scheme makes us less safe. The former Secretary General of Interpol, Ronald K Noble, has said the Schengen system ‘is effectively an international passport-free zone for terrorists to execute attacks on the Continent and make their escape’ (New York Times, 19 November 2015, link).
Rather than giving £350m every week to the EU, the safer option is for Britain to Vote Leave, regain control over our borders and spend our money on our priorities.
BSE’s pledge card is not credible
Yesterday, the Prime Minister stood next to the Mayor of London to issue a ‘pledge card’. Just a month ago the PM attacked Sadiq Khan for allegedly having poor judgment. Yesterday, he hailed him as a great politician as he stood next to him on a shared platform.
EU membership means higher prices. The independent House of Commons Library has concluded that EU membership increases the costs of consumer goods (House of Commons Library, 18 September 2013, link).
David Cameron today says the European Arrest Warrant is a good idea, but he hasn’t always taken this view. In 2001, he said: ‘are we really happy that with one telephone call from the Greek, Spanish or German authorities alleging that we did something wrong on holiday, we can be swept off to a continental prison? Rights and safeguards that we have enjoyed for centuries are being stripped away.’
There is only one poll that matters: remember, we are the underdogs
There are questions in the papers about which side is ahead in the polls (Daily Telegraph, 31 May 2016, link).
We know we are the underdogs. The other side (still) has the machinery of government, the CBI and unlimited EU propaganda cash behind them. What we do know is that the more people hear of David Cameron's trivial proposals, the less they like them. We are confident that when people consider the options, they will opt to Vote Leave and take back control.
Our voters are more motivated because the other side isn’t making a positive case and is reheating the same scare stories used during the euro debate. They were wrong then and they are wrong now.
May 27, 2016
Only way to take back control of our borders is to Vote Leave
· The last migration statistics before the referendum were published yesterday. 270,000 people from the EU came to Britain, including 77,000 jobseekers (Daily Mail, 27 May 2016, link).
· David Cameron’s pledge to cut the numbers coming here to the tens of thousands is in tatters. It cannot be met if we vote to stay.
· Despite his promises, he didn’t even ask for EU migrants ‘to have a job offer’ before they come here in his trivial renegotiation (JCB Staffordshire speech, 28 November 2014, link).
· Uncontrolled migration from Europe is putting pressure on public services like our NHS, schools and hospitals. This will get worse when Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey join.
· The only way we can manage these pressures is to take back control by voting leave on 23 June.
Secret plan for euro army revealed
· Secret plans to create a euro army are set to be proposed by the EU the day after our referendum (The Times, 27 May 2016, link).
· Former Chief of the Defence Staff, Field Marshal Lord Guthrie of Craigiebank, who is supporting ‘remain’, has said: ‘It is silly to have a duplication of Nato... We want to spend the money on defence, not bureaucracy.’
· The only way to keep out of the new euro army and to spend the £50 million Brussels takes from us every day on our priorities, like defence, is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Government in last ditch effort to do down British pensions
· In an attempt to bounce migration statistics off the news yesterday, the Treasury made claims about how pensions would be hit if we Vote Leave drawn up on the back of a fag packet (Daily Mail, 27 May 2016, link).
· The report actually shows that the state pension would go up in real terms even if there was ‘an economic shock’ (HM Treasury, 26 May 2016, link).
· The Government has previously described EU proposals to control our pensions as ‘damaging and reckless’ (DWP, May 2013, link).
· The EU’s financial transactions tax could wipe €4.4 billion off the value of household savings, hitting pensioners (City of London, 2014, link). George Osborne challenged this in the European Court but lost.
· The safer choice for pensioners is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Purdah period begins today
· The four week period in which the Government is restricted from campaigning begins today.
· The Government tried to abolish these rules, so it is unlikely it will abide by them (BBC News, 9 September 2015, link). It has already spent £9.3 million of taxpayers’ money on pro-EU propaganda (Cabinet Office, 6 April 2016, link).
· We are confident the more people hear the arguments, the more they will come to the view that the only way to take back control is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Latest donation figures published
· The latest donation reports from the Electoral Commission show Vote Leave has raised £3.6 million in the most recent reporting period, three times more than David Cameron’s pro-EU campaign (Financial Times, 26 May 2016, link).
· The pro-Brussels lobby group has already had a massive cash injection from the Government and the investment banks that crashed the economy in 2008 (Telegraph, 11 May 2016, link).
· The Leave campaign now has the momentum. The BSE campaign are failing to raise money at a crucial point. People are being turned off by their scare tactics.
May 26, 2016
Quitting EU would save billions in procurement costs
New Vote Leave research has revealed that EU procurement rules cost UK taxpayers £1.6bn - that’s money that could be better spent on new hospitals and flood defences (BBC News, May 2016, link). An estimated 1.9 million days were lost a year in red-tape delays.
These funds would pay for 25 new hospitals, 273,000 basic state pensions as well as increased spending on NHS drugs and road maintenance.
EU procurement rules are absurd - they include the requirement to advertise all major tenders in EU publications. Public bodies have to read a 128-page code of contract regulations.
Michael Gove has described how EU procurement rules constrain government efforts: ‘If we vote Leave, we can scrap the EU's foolish rules on how Whitehall runs procurement processes, which add billions to the cost of government every year’ (Vote Leave, May 2016, link).
New figures reveal the pressure of uncontrolled immigration on the UK
The final statistics before June's referendum on levels of EU migration into the UK are to be published at 0930 this morning. The data will show estimated levels of long-term migration into the UK from within the EU and outside in the year to December 2015 (BBC News, May 2016, link).
Previous releases have shown that an estimated 257,000 EU migrants came to the UK in the year to September 2015, 11,000 higher than the year before. That’s about the population of Newcastle
After we Vote Leave we can introduce our own, more humane, immigration policy where we admit people on the basis of skills, not on what passport they hold.
Ryanair appear to have broken the law by not registering
Ryanair appears to have broken electoral law in its campaign for the UK to stay in the EU. The law requires anyone spending more than £10,000 campaigning to register as a permitted participant. Ryanair has pledged to spend much more and has printed slogans on one of its aircraft, but has not registered (BBC News, 26 May 2016, link).
It is very important that big businesses which benefit from the Brussels regulatory machine are not allowed to evade campaign controls designed to ensure a fair referendum.
O’Leary has misled the British public several times, most recently saying that air fares will go up - but just a few months ago he said ‘will a Brexit on its own cause air fares to rise? No’ (Mirror, February 2016, link). His current warnings are simply not credible.
Cameron doing down pension funds
David Cameron has claimed pensions and investments will be at risk if we Vote Leave and take back control (Daily Telegraph, 26 May 2016, link).
The value of pensions and investments depends above all on the fundamentals of the British economy. Our economy will be stronger if we take back control from Brussels, including of our trade policy. This could create 300,000 jobs (Vote Leave, 12 May 2016, link).
First debate on tonight
‘How Should I Vote? The EU Debate’ is on BBC One at 8pm. Liam Fox MP will represent Vote Leave.
May 25, 2016
Ex-military officers fight for EU exit
Veterans for Britain, a campaign group set up by serving and former military personnel, is making the case for Britain to leave. A dozen former senior military officers have spoken out in favour of Britain leaving the EU.
They rightly say that NATO, and not the EU, should remain the cornerstone of Europe's defence. Being in the EU undermines our NATO membership - as the US Congress has warned (US Congress, January 2008, link).
Among the Veterans for Britain group is General Sir Michael Rose, whose name was wrongly included on a letter organised by Downing Street supporting UK membership of the EU.
The IFS makes a number of inaccurate claims - which is not surprising when you consider the fact it’s EU-funded
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has released a study that calls for people to remain in the EU. But remember - the IFS have received €7.4m from the EU since 2007. It is not an independent organisation.
Contrary to the IFS’s claim, the UK does pay £350 million per week to the EU. In 2014, the UK’s gross contributions to the EU budget were £19,107 million, or £367 million per week (ONS, October 2015, tab 9.9, link). The Head of the UK Statistics Authority, Sir Andrew Dilnot, has said: 'Yes, the £19.1 billion figure is a legitimate figure for gross contributions... the official statistics are the £19.1 billion' (Evidence to Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, 26 April 2016, link).
The IFS is wrong to claim trade will not become more expensive in the long-term. It is in other EU countries interests to strike a free trade agreement. The EU sells the UK nearly £70 billion more each year than the UK sells the EU (ONS, March 2016, tab c, link).
The UK will not become a less attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI). There is very little evidence that being in the EU has had much of an impact on investment flows into the UK. Historically EU countries have not been major investors. Official figures show that the total net foreign direct investment (FDI) into the UK from the EU has been in decline over the last ten years, with the EU actually disinvesting in the UK in 2010 and 2013 (ONS, 3 December 2015, link).
PM is wrong - holidays will not cost more outside the EU. He should stop trying to scare people
The Chief Executive of Ryanair, Michael O’Leary, has admitted that: ‘Will a Brexit on its own cause air fares to rise? No’ (Mirror, February 2016, link). Warnings about higher air fares are simply not credible.
The reason air travel has become cheaper is a set of bilateral agreements made between EU and non-EU countries which would continue after Britain leaves the EU and due to global agreements. These deals include non-EU countries such as Norway, Iceland and Macedonia.
The Head of British Airways’ parent company, Willie Walsh has made clear British airlines will continue to be able to fly between destinations in Europe after we leave (Telegraph, 5 May 2016, link). Any suggestion otherwise is just scaremongering.
The Prime Minister is rattled. He knows that his scaremongering hasn’t worked so far (Reuters, May 2016, link). So he’s trying to find new things to frighten people over. He shouldn’t talk Britian down.
BSE’s broadcast was wildly inaccurate
The BSE campaign broadcast isn’t going to win any awards - certainly not for accuracy. Every single one of its claims have been disproven. Even its Chair, Lord Rose, has disowned many of the claims.
BSE claims that ‘over 200,000 UK businesses trade with the EU.’ This amounts to just 3.7% of the UK’s 5.39 million businesses (ONS/BIS, 14 October 2015, link)
The claim that 3 million jobs depend on EU membership has long since been disproven. The academic whose work pro-EU campaigners have traduced, Dr Martin Weale, has dismissed the claim as ‘pure Goebbels. In many years of academic research, I cannot recall such a wilful distortion of the facts’ (The Sun, 13 November 2015, link).
Not even the Head of the IN campaign, Lord Rose, can bring himself to agree with the claim that leaving the EU is a ‘leap in the dark’. He has said ‘it’s not going to be a step change or somebody’s going to turn the lights out’ (The Times, 17 October 2015, link).
May 24, 2016
Government’s claims on the economy are not simply credible
As the pro-EU First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, has said, the Treasury’s report is overblown and not credible. People won’t be taken in by such threats (Daily Telegraph, May 2016, link).
Even the Financial Times - the house journal of EU supporters - has said that, far from this being even an educated guess ‘more likely, the numbers are just made up’ (Financial Times, 20 May 2016, link).
Under the Treasury’s ‘shock scenario’, there are four quarters of negative economic growth of 0.1% between the third quarter of 2016 and the second quarter of 2017, amounting to a reduction of GDP of 0.4% (HM Treasury, 23 May 2016, link). This means the economy even under the Treasury’s scenario the economy will remain the same size as it was on 31 December 2015.
The reviewer of this report, Sir Charles Bean, has said models of economic shocks are based on ‘gross simplifications’ (Speech at Oxford Institute of Economic Policy, 22 February 2005, link). He was right.
As the FTSE showed yesterday after it dropped 20 points following the publication of the Treasury report, the real risk to our prosperity is the concerted effort by the remain campaign to down the economy.
Tony Blair is expected to intervene in the EU debate today. He cannot be trusted.
Tony Blair’s EU policy was a disaster. He presided over three treaties that gave much more money and power to Brussels. He led the campaign to scrap the pound. He gave up £10.4 billion (and counting) of our rebate.
He agreed to the Charter of Fundamental Rights, which has given the European Court more power over the UK than the US Supreme Court has over the American states.
He promised to give the British public a referendum on the European Constitution. He then broke that promise and agreed to the Lisbon Treaty without giving the people a vote. He cannot be trusted.
Tony Blair claimed that Britain should join the euro as recently as 2011. If we had listened to him it would have been a disaster – he was wrong then and he is wrong now (Independent, June 2011, link).
Europe is becoming increasingly dangerous.
A far-right candidate was nearly elected President of Austria yesterday (BBC News, May 2016, link). The EU does not keep us safe from extremism - it’s lack of democratic accountability is fostering extremism.
Across Europe extremism is flourishing - the National Front is doing well in France and Golden Dawn continues to cast a shadow over Greece.
George Osborne’s former Chief of Staff, Rupert Harrison, has said that Europe resembles ‘a basket case. A lot of investors have cut exposure to Europe during the year. There are political concerns, political risks in Spain and Portugal and weakening data’ (The Times, 24 May 2016, link).
The only chance we have to unshackle ourselves from this failing system is if we Vote Leave on 23 June. If we Vote to stay we will hand more money and power to Brussels.
Questions about the polls
There are questions in the papers about which side is ahead in the polls (Daily Telegraph, May 2016, link).
We know we are the underdogs. The other side have machinery of government, the CBI and unlimited EU propaganda cash behind them. What we do know is that the more people hear of David Cameron's trivial proposals, the less they like them. We are confident that when people consider the options, they will opt to Vote Leave and take back control.
Our voters are more motivated because the other side aren’t making a positive case and are just reheating the same scare stories that they used during the euro debate. They were wrong then and they are wrong now.
May 23, 2016
Dodgy Treasury report defies belief.
The Prime Minister and the Chancellor will today claim that the British economy will contract by between 3.6% and 6% if we Vote Leave (Telegraph, 23 May 2016, link). They are now claiming that the consequences of a leave vote will be worse than the Great Depression. This is farcical.
When the Chancellor set up the independent Office of Budget Responsibility, he said he was doing it because the Government fixes Treasury economic forecasts for political reasons. Nothing has changed.
Before the last recession, the Treasury with the support of the IMF, the OECD and the Bank of England, said the economy would continue to grow. They were all disastrously wrong. We should not listen to them now.
The last time the Treasury forecast an economic shock was if we left the ERM: they were hopelessly wrong.
If we Vote Leave, we take back control of the £350 million we send to Brussels and our trade policy. This will be good for jobs, investment and growth.
Close Cameron confidante backs a leave vote.
In a hard-hitting article today, David Cameron’s closest friend in politics, Steve Hilton, argues that we must leave the EU, pointing out it is unreformed, anti-democratic and incapable of change (Daily Mail, 23 May 2016, link).
The EU remains completely unchanged after the renegotiation. The only way to take back control of our democracy is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Collapse in support for EU among big business.
A survey by ICSA of FTSE 350 firms show that just a minority of big firms think leaving the EU would be damaging.
Just over a third of companies regarded EU membership as having a positive effect on their business, substantially down from 61 per cent in December 2015 (Financial Times, 22 May 2016, link).
Businesses are increasingly convinced that the EU and its ‘single market’ are bad for Britain. The safer option is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Turkish accession is on the cards.
There are questions about the date on which Turkey will join the EU (Financial Times, 22 May 2016, link).
The European Commission recently announced the pace of Turkey's accession will be ‘accelerated’ (European Commission, 4 May 2016, link).
We are paying over £1 billion to facilitate Turkish accession (Vote Leave, 27 April 2016, link).
The British public will not get a say, just as they didn’t get a say on any past accessions. We didn’t get a referendum when Croatia joined the EU in 2013. The Prime Minister has has he is the ‘strongest possible advocate’ of Turkish accession and wants ‘to pave the road from Ankara’ (Prime Minister’s Office, 27 July 2010, link).
This is our last chance to have a say. The only way to block Turkish accession is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Vote Leave, save our NHS
Vote Leave is releasing our new campaign broadcast today - if we Vote Leave we will have £350m to spend on our priorities, like the NHS
It was extraordinary to see the Chief Executive of the NHS argue that he’d rather that we stay in the EU and that the NHS doesn’t get that money. The rich elite value the EU over our NHS - and are wrong to do so.
May 20, 2016
EU migration - Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are joining the EU - this will put huge pressure on the NHS
If Britain votes to stay, it is voting for the permanent continuation of ‘free movement of people’. There are five more countries in the queue to join the EU including Turkey. We are paying them to join. The Government’s living wage policy will increase the incentive to come to Britain. This will mean net migration from the EU between about 170,000 and 430,000 each year. This will add between 2.58 million and 5.23 million people to the population of the UK by 2030. The consequences for the NHS will be a rise in A&E attendances of between 6.3 million and 12.8 million per year, the equivalent of a rise in demand for A&E services of between 28% and 57%. The public will get no further vote on enlargement. The only vote they will get is on 23 June. It is much safer to vote leave and take back control.
The EU immigration record. Since 2004, net migration from the EU has averaged about 100,000 per year, totalling around 1.2 million.
The EU immigration trajectory. A reasonable estimate of net migration from the EU, based on figures from the Office for National Statistics and projections of the impact of the National Living Wage, is that by 2030 it will be between about 170,000 and 430,000 each year. This will add between 2.58 million and 5.23 million people to the population of the UK. The consequences for the NHS will be a rise in A&E attendances of between 6.3 million and 12.8 million per year, the equivalent of a rise in demand for A&E services of between 28% and 57%.
‘Free movement’ is the law. A core principle of the EU is the ‘free movement’ of people. This principle is strongly supported by the British Government. Under EU rules, free movement can never be limited to serve economic ends, meaning the British Government cannot take measures to manage migration, no matter how great the pressure on public services becomes. This is good for multinationals and richer people in many ways - they can hire cheaper labour. It is damaging for those who rely on public services that are over-stretched.
Government failure to forecast and prepare. Governments of all parties have made forecasts of EU immigration that have proved badly wrong and they have also failed to invest in the infrastructure needed for increases in immigration. In 2004, ten countries joined the EU, including eight in eastern Europe (the A8). Although the Government publicly admitted that there was a ‘risk’ of a considerable increase in migration, the Home Office predicted additional average net migration of between 5,000 and 13,000 per year would result. This was a very bad prediction by the Government, although Ministers initially insisted their estimates were accurate. In fact, over 50,000 A8 nationals (net) came to the UK per year during the forecast period. The official forecast was wrong by a factor of about ten.
The EU is expanding and the UK is paying to include Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey (the A5). This is the purpose of the EU’s enlargement policy. The EU is paying €17.7 billion to facilitate these countries’ accession, of which the UK is paying £1.8 billion. Turkish accession talks have recently been ‘accelerated’ by the European Commission, which is already implementing visa-free access for Turkey to the Schengen area. This will create a visa-free zone from the English Channel to the borders of Syria.
The UK Government is a champion of EU enlargement and in particular of Turkish accession to the EU. The Prime Minister has said the case for Turkish membership is ‘indisputable’, that he would like ‘to pave the road from Ankara’, that he is ‘angry’ at delays in the accession process and that he is the ‘strongest possible advocate’ of Turkish accession.
Our only vote on this is on 23 June. We won’t get a vote on accession. A vote to stay is a vote for the enlargement of an unreformed EU.
The pressure on public services will grow. The baseline forecast used in this paper is that net migration from the EU will remain at the present level of 172,000 per year until 2030. This will add 2.58 million additional persons to the UK population. Considerable additional pressure on the NHS will result. On top of the existing savings required by the Five Year Forward View, the NHS will require an additional £4.61 billion per year by 2030 to maintain current levels of funding per person. Attendances at accident and emergency will increase by 6.31 million, the equivalent of an increase in demand for accident and emergency services of 28.1%. The UK will need an additional 7,276 doctors and 21,311 nurses just to maintain current levels of medical staff per capita.
Accession forecast. In addition, this document forecasts future migration from the A5 on the assumption of their accession in 2020. It contains a low forecast under which persons from the A5 states move to the UK in the same proportion relative to their population as persons from the A8 states have done since 2004. It considers a medium forecast under which persons from the A5 states move to the UK in the same proportion relative to their population as persons from the A2 states have done since 2014. Finally, it considers a high forecast which combines the impact of the introduction of the national living wage with the medium forecast.
Low forecast. The low forecast is that net EU migration will rise to 233,000 per year by 2030, the equivalent of adding a city the size of Portsmouth to the population each year. 3.19 million persons will be added to the UK population as a direct result, more than the current population of Wales. On top of the existing savings required by the Five Year Forward View, the NHS will require an additional £5.71 billion per year by 2030 to maintain current funding levels per person. Attendances at accident and emergency will increase by 7.81 million per year by 2030, the equivalent of a 34.8% increase in demand for accident and emergency services. The UK will need an additional 9,004 doctors and 26,372 nurses to maintain current levels of medical staff per capita.
Medium forecast. The medium forecast is that net EU migration will rise to 339,000 per year by 2030, the equivalent of adding a city the size of Cardiff to the UK population each year. 4.25 million persons will be added to the UK population as a direct result, the equivalent of four cities the size of Birmingham. On top of the existing savings required by the Five Year Forward View, the NHS will require an additional £7.60 billion per year by 2030 to maintain current funding levels per person. Attendances at accident and emergency will increase by 10.4 million per year by 2030, the equivalent of a 46.4% increase in demand for accident and emergency services. The UK will need an additional 11,992 doctors and 35,125 nurses to maintain current levels of medical staff per capita.
High forecast. The high forecast is that net EU migration will rise to 428,000 per year by 2030, the equivalent of adding a city the size of Bristol to the UK population each year. 5.23 million persons will be added to the UK population as a direct result, the equivalent of the population of Scotland. On top of the existing savings required by the Five Year Forward View, the NHS will require an additional £9.35 billion by 2030 to maintain current funding levels. Attendances at accident and emergency will increase by 12.8 million per year by 2030, the equivalent of a 57.0% increase in demand for accident and emergency services. The UK will need an additional 14,746 doctors and 43,193 nurses to maintain current levels of medical staff per capita.
None of these forecasts considers the impact of migration from outside the EU, suggesting that the pressure on the NHS is likely to be even greater by 2030 in the event of a vote to stay in the EU. It is safer to take back control by voting to leave the European Union on 23 June.
If we Vote Leave, we take back control of our borders and our public services. We will be able to control immigration policy and asylum policy (which the European Court now controls via the Charter of Fundamental Rights). We will be able to have a more humane and rational immigration policy. We will be able to target abuses of the system and get democratic support for immigration policy.
It is safer to take back control by voting to leave the European Union on 23 June. The UK is unlikely to be given another chance for decades.
Migration Q & A
Q. The ONS, the OBR and the Treasury all forecast there will be 3 million migrants by 2030 in total. You have produced a vastly bigger figure for the EU alone. This is scaremongering, isn't it?
We have set out our assumptions on the basis of past experience: how many persons moved to the UK following accessions of countries in the past. These bodies, including the ONS, have got predictions about the level of migration badly wrong in the past: famously, a Home Office study in 2003 suggested as few as 5,000 persons would come each year from newly acceding countries: this was out by a factor of 10. We think our predictions are reasonable.
Q. The Prime Minister and the Chancellor have declared the economic argument over. They're right, aren't they?
We are running a full spectrum campaign. We started our campaign on the NHS and today we are making the case again that the NHS will benefit if we stop sending £350 million a week to Brussels and take back control of our borders. We are also campaigning on the economy and trade argument: just this week another 300 business leaders said the safer option was to Vote Leave and take back control of our economy on 23 June.
Q. The IMF, the OECD, the Bank of England and the Treasury suggest a recession if we leave the EU and lower GDP. This will make the NHS funding crisis worse, not better, won't it?
These bodies have been consistently wrong in the past and they are wrong now. They were wrong on the euro. They failed on the 2008 financial crisis. The EU is good for the rich and powerful. It is not good for the public that has to pay for the failure of those in charge. If we Vote Leave, we take back control of our economy and the power to strike our own trade deals. That will be good for jobs, growth and investment. The risky option is to vote to remain in the EU and to have no control over migration, no matter how great the pressure on our NHS.
Q. Migrants are net fiscal contributors, so isn't higher net migration a way of solving the NHS's funding crisis by paying for the healthcare of the growing number of ageing British citizens?
Experts are divided about the economic effects of migration, but it is a fact that if we vote remain, we will will not be able to manage migration to reduce the impact on public services. We will be able to prioritise job creators and entrepreneurs if we Vote Leave. Now we stop highly skilled people coming here from outside the EU while we cannot stop anybody coming from the EU. That is a foolish policy. After we vote leave our immigration policy will be much fairer and we can stop discriminating against people from outside the EU.
Q. Ending free movement will mean British pensioners can’t retire to the EU. This will increase the burden on the NHS, won’t it?
It’s silly to suggest no one will be able to retire in Europe if we take back control, but at present, we have a health care deficit of £618 million with EU countries, enough to abolish prescription charges in England. For as long as we remain in the EU, however, we will have no power to manage migration or the pressure it places on public services. That’s why the safer option is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Q. You assume these countries join in 2020. This is very early isn’t it?
Enlargement is the stated aim of the European Union itself and we are paying nearly £2 billion to ensure it will happen. The Turkish accession process has recently been ‘accelerated’ by the European Commission. There are five countries in the pipeline to join, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey: their accessions as early as 2020 will place an unsustainable burden on our NHS. The Prime Minister has said that he wants to ‘pave the road from Ankara’ and is ‘angry’ at the delays to Turkish membership. It remains official Government policy to let these countries in and the Foreign Secretary confirmed that on 20 May.
Q. The UK will have a veto over accessions, which can't be ratified without the approval of the sovereign House of Commons. So surely there is nothing to fear from a vote to remain? We could block it later.
It is the stated policy of the Government that these countries and others should join the EU. The Prime Minister has said he wants to ‘pay the road from Ankara’. We didn’t get a vote on Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia joining, and won’t have a say if we vote remain. The only chance we will get is on 23 June. We may not get another say for decades. That’s why the safer choice is to Vote Leave.
Q. You assume the UK will not impose transitional controls. This is fantasy, isn't it? The Government has made clear that it will veto any accession without more stringent transitional controls than those which we imposed for seven years after Romania and Bulgaria joined? This was affirmed in the renegotiation.
We set out in the document scenarios in which transitional controls are imposed and in which they are not. Transitional controls weren’t imposed in 2004 and might not be again. Jeremy Corbyn has said he is keen on having more immigration from Turkey. The British public won’t have a say over this. That’s why the safer choice is to take back control of our borders by voting to leave on 23 June.
Q. Migrants are younger and less likely to use the NHS, so per capita quantifications are bogus?
We have produced a figure of how much more money the NHS will need to maintain spending per capita. Yes, working age migrants are less likely to use the NHS, but they are also more likely to have children. This will add to the population and place an increased burden on the NHS, for example, through greater demand for maternity services. We don't take this into account. Overall, we think we have produced a reasonable figure.
Q. Your increases in demand for A&E are wholly out of proportion to increases in the population due to net migration?
Since 2002, A&E attendances have increased by over 8 million, or by nearly 60%. The population has increased by less than 10% in the same period. Those unfamiliar with our healthcare system, through no fault of their own, may be more likely to go to A&E rather than to their GP. It is reasonable to assume that a considerable increase in net migration will have a disproportionate impact on demand for A&E services.
Q. You assume all the increase in demand is due to higher migration?
There has been a very rapid rise in A&E attendances since 2004, vastly out of proportion to increases in the population. It is reasonable to assume net migration is the principal cause. Also remember that the document doesn’t consider (1) the children of persons who will move here or (2) immigration from outside the EU, so overall we think the figures are reasonable.
Q. You have assumed an increase in net migration due to the national living wage exactly the same as the rise in the minimum wage as a result of that policy. It's a back of a fag packet calculation, isn't it?
We have set out our assumptions clearly. No one seriously doubts that the welcome introduction of the national living wage will act as a big additional pull factor to migrants, placing a greater burden on our NHS. That’s why the safer choice is to Vote Leave on 23 June and to take back control.
Q. This document fails to take into account the effect of the Prime Minister's emergency brake. Are you saying the Prime Minister is lying by claiming it will reduce immigration?
As the Head of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility has made clear, the ‘emergency brake’ will have ‘not much’ impact on migration. The ‘brake’ could be vetoed by the European Parliament or blocked by the European Court the day after the referendum. The only way to take back control of our borders is to Vote Leave.
Q. If these levels of migration continue, there would be no people left in these countries in the long-term?
We are not making projections that far into the future, but over the next fifteen years, based on what has happened since other countries joined the EU in the past. If we vote remain, it is certain we will have no control, no matter how great the burden on the NHS.
May 20, 2016
European Commission calls for Britain to build more homes - because of open borders
The leader of the House of Commons, Chris Grayling, has highlighted a European Commission report that orders the UK to build more houses to accommodate the ever-increasing UK population (Daily Mail, May 2016, link).
The EU’s open border system puts pressure on housing, social services and wages - new ONS statistics released this week show most new jobs in the last year went to EU nationals. Britain’s labour market is thriving, but more than three quarters of the rise in employment over the last year has come from people born abroad (Daily Telegraph, May 2016, link).
The EU’s open border system works for fat cats and big businesses: it doesn’t work for Brits on low pay - and those out of work - who feel the consequences of uncontrolled migration. They are forced to compete with millions of people from abroad for jobs. As the head of the BSE campaign, Lord Rose, has admitted - if we Vote Leave wages will go up (Treasury Committee, March 2016, link).
The EU’s chaotic open border policy also means we are unable to stop convicted murderers and paedophiles coming into the UK to commit more awful crimes. This is dangerous and makes us less safe. David Cameron’s deal does nothing to help solve this out-of-control system. The only way to take back control is to Vote Leave.
Government admits that NHS at risk from TTIP
The Government has, surprisingly, accepted an amendment to the Queen’s Speech, regretting the omission of a Bill to protect the NHS from the controversial US-EU free trade deal, TTIP (BBC News, May 2016, link).
The Government therefore accepts that the NHS is at risk from TTIP. Legal opinions by top QCs have warned that TTIP would mean privatisation of elements of the NHS which could become irreversible. This is bad for democracy and bad for the NHS (Guardian, February 2016, link).
Today will see the release of new statistics that show that the NHS has overspent by over £2 billion. We send the EU £350 million every week - or £20 billion a year. If we Vote Leave we can spend that money on our priorities, like the NHS (BBC News, May 2016, link).
Arts will benefit if we Vote Leave
As the 'House of Cards’ author Lord Dobbs has said, British success in the arts industry was ‘not because of the EU’ (BBC News, May 2016, link).
Our creative industries are booming because of the talent that is in Britain's DNA. We are world leaders in so many creative areas. From theatre to literature, video games, feature films, fashion, music and so much else, British artists lead the way and are celebrated around the globe - this was true before we joined the EU and will remain the case after we Vote Leave (BBC News, May 2016, link).
The EU paid the UK €11.1m in 2014 for ‘Creative Europe’ - or 0.06% of the UK’s total EU contribution in the same year. The UK received less from ‘Creative Europe’ funds than Belgium (€32.1m), Germany (€20.4m), France (€44.2m).
The Labour IN campaign shows contempt towards voters
A Labour IN campaigner, Pat Glass, has been caught calling electors ‘racist’ for having concerns about immigration (BBC News, May 2016, link).
We need to conduct the referendum sensibly and address electors concerns, not treat them with contempt.
May 19, 2016
New ONS numbers show the problems with the EU open borders system
ONS statistics released yesterday show that most new jobs in the last year went to EU nationals. Britain’s labour market is thriving, but more than three quarters of the rise in employment over the last year has come from people born abroad (Daily Telegraph, May 2016, link).
The EU’s open border system works for fat cats and big businesses: it doesn’t work for Brits on low pay - and those out of work - who feel the consequences of uncontrolled migration. They are forced to compete with millions of people from abroad for jobs, and so suffer downward pressure on their wages.
As the head of the BSE campaign, Lord Rose, has admitted - if we Vote Leave wages will go up (Treasury Committee, March 2016, link).
The EU weakens our borders and makes us less safe
The justice minister, Dominic Raab, has written an important piece in the Daily Mail, pointing out that being in the EU weakens our borders and undermines our security. Thanks to EU rules, criminal convictions are not grounds alone for barring entry, even to murderers (Daily Mail, March 2016, link).
Because of the European Court, we either have to disclose information which could damage national security to suspected terrorists, or allow them into the UK (Daily Mail, 19 May 2016, link). The European Court is a threat to our security.
If we Vote Leave on 23 June, we can introduce emergency legislation after the referendum to stop the European Court interfering with national security. That’s the safer choice.
Bloomberg and the elite don’t speak for British business or British workers.
It has been revealed that the signatories to the letter in The Financial Times from multinational firms together spend between €15.3 million and €17.65 million lobbying the European Commission
Of course, Brussels is good for big businesses and fat cats who care about their bonuses - they can afford to spend huge amounts of money on lobbyists and lawyers to help them stitch up the rules. But it is bad for smaller businesses and entrepreneurs.
Big businesses are outraged by the publication of a letter between No. 10 and Rupert Soames OBE, Chief Executive of Serco which revealed the conspiracy between the Government and multinationals to keep us in the EU. Number 10 want whistleblowers prosecuted (The Times, 19 May 2016, link).
Those at the top will resort to any means to protect themselves and their power: that’s why they are backing remain.
May 17, 2016
The European Commission finally admits it: the EU makes us less safe
A European Commission report has stated that the new deal struck with Turkey means terrorists are more likely to attack European countries (Daily Telegraph, May 2016, link).
Under the new deal struck by the EU, Turkey’s 75 million citizens will have the right to enter the Schengen zone visa-free. This means that there will be a border-free zone from the English Channel to the warzones of Syria and Iraq. This will be a disaster for our security, as the former head of MI6 has warned (BBC News, May 2016, link).
The EU body charged with managing Europe’s external borders, Frontex, has admitted that there were a record 1.82 million illegal crossings into the EU last year, six times more than in 2014 (Daily Mail, April 2016, link).
The only way to take back control of our security and borders is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Leaked No. 10 documents reveal orchestrated effort to whip up fear
The Daily Mail has published a secret letter between No. 10 and Rupert Soames OBE, Chief Executive of Serco, dated 8 February 2016. This confirms that the Prime Minister was never serious about renegotiating Britain’s membership of the EU and was always aiming to launch a campaign to talk Britain down (Daily Mail, May 2016, link).
In the letter, Mr Soames discusses ‘how to mobilise corporates to look carefully at the risks Brexit represents. I am working with Peter Chadlington and Stuart Rose [Chairman of BSE] with a view to contacting FTSE 500 companies who have Annual Reports due for publication before June and persuading them that they should include Brexit in their Key Risks.’
Mr Soames also lobbies for more public contracts for Serco, despite independent inspectors condemning the prisons which it runs today.
This is a shocking revelation and shows how recent announcements by large corporations have been orchestrated to do down Britain.
Former head of MI6 warns that EU at risk of ‘popularist uprising’
Yesterday, the former head of MI6, Sir Richard Dearlove, restated that we don’t need to be in the EU to cooperate with European partners, that there are security gains from leaving and warned that the EU is at risk of a ‘populist uprising’ (BBC News, May 2016, link).
Sir Richard warns that the EU’s plan for visa-free travel with Turkey will make us less safe: ‘For the EU, however, to offer visa-free access to 75 million Turks to stem the flow of migrants across the Aegean seems perverse, like storing gasoline next to the fire one is trying to extinguish’.
The EU helps tax-dodgers
Being in the EU means that we lack power to stop tax avoidance. So long as we are EU members, there is no way to stop big businesses using tax havens like Luxembourg. The European Commission admits that its rules ‘allow for even greater mobility of tax bases and profits’ (Daily Mail, May 2016, link).
New research has shown that British taxpayers have been left out of pocket by £2.36 billion since 2012 after EU judges overhauled UK tax laws - enough to have paid for an additional 29,205 more NHS nurses.
If we Vote Leave, we take back control. We can stop this tax avoidance and we spend the £350 million we send to the EU every week on our priorities, like the NHS.
We can’t trust Ryanair
At an event yesterday, the head of Ryanair made a number of ludicrous claims about what would happen if we Vote Leave. We should not listen to what he says now, but what he used to say.
Michael O'Leary of Ryanair has previously been very critical of the EU, which he has called an ‘evil empire’: ‘You work in the Commission and pay higher prices by law because, let's face it, the European taxpayer is going to pay for it anyway. The European Union spends most of its time either suing me, torturing me, criticising me or condemning me for lowering the cost of air travel all over Europe and making life really difficult for their favourite airlines… Any hint of innovation is left at the door when you walk in to become politicians and bureaucrats…. It's certainly not going to be a conference held in Brussels, where the last innovative idea came in 1922’ (Irish Independent, 1 January 2012, link).
O’Leary previously said that ‘Will a Brexit on its own cause air fares to rise? No’ (Mirror, February 2016, link). His current warnings are simply not credible.
The polls show that there’s all to play for
There are questions in the papers about which side is ahead in the polls (Daily Telegraph, May 2016, link).
We know we are the underdogs. The other side have machinery of government, the CBI and unlimited EU propaganda cash behind them. What we do know is that the more people hear of David Cameron's trivial proposals, the less they like them. We are confident that when people consider the options, they will opt to Vote Leave and take back control.
Our voters are more motivated because the other side aren’t making a positive case and are just reheating the same scare stories that they used during the euro debate. They were wrong then and they are wrong now.
May 16, 2016
The so-called ‘single market’ has failed British business. Top firms now want to Vote Leave.
300 business leaders have written to the Daily Telegraph to voice their support for a ‘leave’ vote. Signatories include Peter Goldstein, a founder of Superdrug; Steve Dowdle, the former vice president Europe of technology firm Sony; David Sismey, a MD of Goldman Sachs; and Sir Patrick Sheehy, the former chairman of British American Tobacco (Telegraph, 15 May 2016, link).
As Boris Johnson argues today, the EU is good for City fat-cats. It is not good for startups and entrepreneurs. We need to stand up for the 95% of British businesses that don’t export to the EU (Telegraph, 15 May 2016, link).
New research shows that the value of British exports of goods to the EU has fallen by 18 per cent in the last decade. Instead of being the great engine of trade it was promoted as, the so-called ‘single market’ is a source of stifling regulation that holds British back businesses at home and makes them less competitive in the world markets (Sun, May 2016, link). It’s no surprise that producers are today warning that the ‘digital single market’ will be a disaster (Telegraph, May 2016, link).
We will retain access to the Single Market after we Vote Leave by striking a free trade deal with our European friends and allies. But we will not have to accept the supremacy of EU law or have to keep paying £350 million every week into the EU’s budget.
The Governor of the Bank of England is at risk of becoming political
The Governor’s recent statements are concerning. It would be unthinkable for the Bank of England to comment on political parties’ manifestos before an election. It should not take a position in the referendum.
The Governor’s position is not justified by the Bank’s own research. The Bank of England has stated that there is ‘little evidence across the range of indicators that… uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU had much affected job creation’ (Bank of England, April 2016, link).
The EU’s migrant crisis is out of control
The EU has completely lost control of the migrant crisis. The UN has now had to step in and declare that a ‘global response’ is needed (BBC News, May 2016, link).
The EU body charged with managing Europe’s external borders, Frontex, has admitted that there were a record 1.82 million illegal crossings into the EU last year, six times more than in 2014 (Daily Mail, April 2016, link).
This is yet more evidence that the EU makes us less safe. The EU has acknowledged that terrorists were using the migration crisis and Europe’s porous borders to enter the EU.
The only way to have an independent asylum policy is to Vote Leave and take back control. This will give us much greater flexibility in how we deal with asylum claims.
EU judges to block landmark sugar tax
George Osborne’s landmark sugar tax appears certain to be blocked by EU judges because it falls foul of ‘single market’ rules (The Sun, 15 May 2016, link).
Elected British politicians, not the unelected European Court, should be in charge of our tax system. The European Court already has far too much control over our tax system. Its judgments could cost the UK up to £50 billion (Sunday Times, 10 April 2016, link).
If we Vote Leave, we can immediately end the European Court’s control of our tax system. We will spend the £350 million Brussels takes from us each week on our priorities like the NHS.
Boris is right - previous attempts to unify Europe have ended disastrously
Recent headlines do not match the sensible historical statements that Boris made. The facts are clear - successive attempts to create a single European state have ended disastrously. We should not ignore history.
The only people trying to scaremonger about war are the BSE campaign, who claim that leaving will lead to World War III.
May 13, 2016
Real level of EU migration is revealed
Yesterday new figures - which had to be dragged out of the government - showed the scale and impact of immigration from the EU is even higher than previously admitted (Daily Telegraph, May 2016, link).
EU immigration is out of control - and cannot be controlled as long as we stay in the EU. This puts huge strains on the NHS, housing, schools and other public services.
In the four years ending June 2014, there were 739,000 gross EU migrants according to the International Passenger Survey (IPS). There were 1.537 million National insurance number registrations. The Government has been misleading the public about the scale of immigration.
Short term migration is highly significant, and arguably most damaging in terms of wages and work conditions. The only way we can take back control of our borders is if we Vote Leave on 23 June.
Bank of England’s own numbers show their forecasts are wrong
The Governor of the Bank of England chose to interfere in the democratic process yesterday (BBC News, 12 May 2016, link).
He should be careful with his words and should not talk down the economy - what he is doing is extremely irresponsible and he has rightly been criticised by the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Lord Lamont (Reuters, May 2016, link).
The Bank of England is wrong to say sterling is in decline. The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee state clearly that: ‘The sterling exchange rate had appreciated on the month’ (Bank of England, 12 May 2016, link).
If you read beyond the headlines, the Bank actually predicts the economy will continue to grow, despite the apparent uncertainty it claims is being caused by the referendum.
The EU is failing to keep us safe
In a report, the House of Lords EU Committee says the EU’s operations do not ‘in any meaningful way’ disrupt smugglers' boats (BBC News, May 2016, link).
The EU’s migrant crisis is out of control. It will only get worse when it allows in countries like Turkey, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia - we will have a border with Iraq and Syria. This is dangerous.
The EU has already started introducing a European border force with armed ships and drones (European Parliament, November 2015, link; BBC News, 18 December 2015, link). These could operate just a few miles from the British Isles. The new agency will have a quick reaction force of 1,500 guards and a ‘right to intervene’ in European Union nations.
After we Vote Leave we can introduce our own, more humane, immigration policy.
John Major is wrong - the real scandal is that Turkey is joining the EU
In a speech today, John Major will criticise those who talk about immigration. He is wrong to dismiss one of the public’s biggest concerns (Guardian, May 2016, link).
Turkey, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia are set to join the EU in the near future. That would put huge pressure on the NHS.
Just a few months ago the Prime Minister was saying ‘in terms of Turkish membership of the EU, I very much support that. That’s a longstanding position of British foreign policy which I support' (Daily Telegraph, 9 December 2014, link).
Being in the EU undermines our security and makes it easier for criminals to get in, as even the EU’s own Frontex Agency has been forced to admit. It is safer to take back control on 23 June.
New evidence of Brussels’ plans to take more power and money after 23 June
It’s been revealed that the EU has postponed the publication of its draft budget until after the EU referendum (CityAM, May 2016, link).
Brussels’ doesn’t want the public to know that if they vote to remain they will end up paying even more .
The EU already costs us £350 million every week. That’s money that could be spent on our priorities - like the NHS.
May 12, 2016
In campaign funded by Wall Street gamblers who crashed the world economy
Yesterday, the Electoral Commission published details of donations and loans to the EU referendum campaigns. The In campaign has raised millions more than Vote Leave.
Unlike the Britain Stronger in Europe (BSE) campaign, we have not received over £9 million of taxpayer-funded propaganda.
Just four donors to the BSE campaign, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Citi, have had to pay a total of $27.7 billion to the US Government for their role in causing the global financial crisis in 2008 (Daily Mail, 12 May 2016, link). Goldman Sachs also cooked the books to allow Greece to join the single currency. They do not have our interests at heart.
Many of BSE’s donors also supported or donated to the campaign to scrap the pound. Some, such as Eurostar, are even owned by foreign governments.
Migrant job data to be published
Today will hopefully see the release of data on the number of active national insurance numbers registered to EU migrants. This will reveal how many EU migrants have really come to the UK.
The statistical accuracy of the existing figures has been impugned by the influential and cross-party Public Administration Select Committee (PASC, 16 July 2013, link).
The EU’s immigration policy has made the NHS crisis even worse. GP registrations have increased by 1.5 million in the last three years alone. As Boris Johnson and Priti Patel have noted, ‘uncontrolled immigration from the EU has put a massive strain on the NHS’ (Daily Telegraph, April 2016, link).
Broadcasters should not promote the ‘In’ campaign
The Government has set all the rules for the referendum to give itself every possible advantage. It has also demanded of the broadcasters that the Prime Minister should not have to debate representatives from the official Leave campaign.
ITV has accepted the Prime Minister's demands without even discussing it with the official campaign and has allowed the Prime Minister to dictate his own opponent. Since the campaign began, ITV has also given twice as much airtime to the IN campaign than to the Leave campaign.
We think that the Prime Minister ought to debate the representative of the official Leave campaign. In a serious democracy, the government should not be allowed by a free media to pick its own opponents in the official debates on the most important election in decades.
We are discussing legal possibilities to increase the chances that the public will hear the issues properly discussed before they make such an important vote on the future of their democratic rights.
The reason for the timing of the announcement is the Government's desire to distract attention from the immigration figures being released today. We hope that ITV covers that story properly.'
Bill of Rights to be included in the Queen’s Speech
It has been reported that plans for a British Bill of Rights which will repeal the Human Rights Act 1998 will be included in the Queen’s Speech (Daily Mail, 12 May 2016, link).
Whatever your views on the merits of the proposals, we should be in charge of human rights, not the EU. The EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights contains all the rights in the ECHR and more. The European Court of Justice has used it this week to take control of our extradition policy (Daily Mail, 10 May 2016, link).
If we vote remain, the European Court will remain in charge of the Bill of Rights using the Charter. If we Vote Leave, we can immediately end the application of the Charter to the UK and make a decision about the future of the Human Rights Act 1998 which the British people can support.
May 11, 2016
Vote Leave bus launches in Cornwall
Boris Johnson and Gisela Stuart are in Cornwall to start the Vote Leave Battle Bus tour of the UK.
Over the next 43 days, we will be taking our case to the whole country, that we should take back control of the £350 million we give to Brussels every week and instead spend that money on our priorities, like the NHS.
New European Court opinion could mean Hamza might have stayed
In an opinion issued yesterday, the EU’s Advocate General said the European Court will use the Charter of Fundamental Rights to take control of this country’s extradition policy with the US and other states. This could have made it impossible to have removed Hamza from the UK (Daily Mail, 11 May 2016, link).
In an extraordinary move, the UK urged the European Court to take control, against the advice of every other member state.
The EU and the Charter are threats to our security. It is much safer to take back control from the European Court on 23 June.
Gordon Brown tries to lecture Britain, but should reflect on his record
Gordon Brown will wade into the EU debate today (BBC News, May 2016, link).
Brown signed us up to the Lisbon Treaty, including the dangerous Charter of Fundamental Rights. In 1997, he said ‘British membership of a successful single currency would be beneficial to Britain and Europe’ (Hansard, 27 October 1997, col. 588, link).
Today, he says the EU is necessary to combat tax avoidance, while the European Court awards billions to multinationals in tax refunds (Sunday Times, 10 April 2016, link).
He said last year that if we left the EU we would be like North Korea (Guardian, March 2015, link). He called people who are worried about EU migration ‘bigoted’ (Guardian, April 2010, link). We should not listen to his attempts to do Britain down.
The EU is coming for our kettles and toasters
It has been revealed that the EU is poised to ban high-powered kettles, toasters, and hair-dryers within months of Britain’s referendum vote (BBC News, May 2016, link). We can only protect British appliances if we Vote Leave on 23 June.
This is just the latest example of barmy EU red tape. The EU tells us how big our olive oil containers have to be (link) and how bendy our bananas have to be (link).
EU regulation costs the UK £600m every week. Because EU law is supreme there is nothing that we can do to reduce this burden. The only way we can alter damaging EU red tape is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Let’s not forget who’s really corrupt
The Prime Minister has been caught speaking frankly about corruption.
If he’s interested in corruption he should be talking about the EU. The European Commission has said that the scale of corruption across the EU is ‘breathtaking’ (BBC News, February 2014, link).
The EU’s accounts have not been given a clean bill of health for twenty years.
May 10, 2016
Iain Duncan Smith exposes Government’s ‘sham’ renegotiation
In an important interview, the former Work and Pensions Secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, has revealed that the Government’s proposal for an emergency brake on migration was vetoed by Germany - with Berlin saying we are not allowed control of our borders (The Sun, May 2016, link).
The renegotiation was a disaster. The Prime Minister promised to ‘get what Britain needs’ on free movement, but the European Commission and the European Court have exactly the same powers over the UK as they did before the renegotiation (Vote Leave, March 2016, link).
Even the IN campaign have called the renegotiation ‘a sham’ (BBC Newsnight, 13 January 2016, link).
The Prime Minister said EU jobseekers should ‘have a job offer before they come here’ to come to the UK (JCB Staffordshire speech, 28 November 2014, link). This was not achieved during the renegotiation.
The only way to take back control of our borders is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
BCC survey shows more and more businesses want to Vote Leave
The British Chambers of Commerce has released a new survey that shows a dramatic drop in the number of businesses supporting ‘remain’ and a significant increase in the number of businesses who will Vote Leave (BBC News, May 2016, link).
The survey shows that businesses which do not export and businesses which export outside the EU now support leaving the EU. Such firms constitute the overwhelming majority (95%) of British companies.
Business is not fearful of the referendum or the result. This is because they know it is safer to take back control and spend the £350 million Brussels takes from us each week on our priorities.
Chancellor talking down Britain’s financial sector again
The Government is trying to claim that jobs will be lost in the financial sector if we Vote Leave (Financial Times, May 2016, link).
Our financial sector does not depend on EU membership. Switzerland sends more of its financial exports to the EU than we do - and they are outside the EU. The City will continue to trade with Europe. As the Head of the IN campaign has admitted, ‘they cannot do without us’ (Evidence to Treasury Committee, 2 March 2016, link).
If we Vote Leave, we take back control of the financial sector. The EU is taking more and more control over our banks - we need to be in control so we can manage another financial crisis. We can’t allow the reckless gamblers who are funding the IN campaign to blow up the economy like they did in 2008.
The Government and the IN campaign are in panic because the public have seen through the hollow renegotiation and don’t believe we should keep sending more money and power to Brussels every year.
The EU undermines NATO
Do not listen to the Government’s latest attempts to talk Britain down. Membership of NATO is being undermined by the EU
The US Congress has warned that ‘U.S. officials remain concerned... that France and a few other EU members may continue to press for a more autonomous EU defence identity that could rival NATO structures and ultimately destroy the indivisibility of the transatlantic security guarantee’.
Other prominent US think tanks have also warned that EU defence integration risks ‘undermining NATO’.
It is much safer to take back control and spend the £350 million Brussels takes from us each week on our priorities, like defence.
May 9, 2016
May 6, 2016
Local elections
The local elections remind us how much power we have given to unelected bureaucrats in Brussels (on top of the £350 million we send there every week).
If we Vote Leave on 23 June we can go back to ensuring those who make our laws and who take the decisions that affect our daily lives are accountable to us.
Juncker lets slip his contempt for the electorate
The President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, has berated European leaders for listening to their electorates (Telegraph, May 2016, link). This is an incredible statement and shows the complete disregard that the Brussels elite has for the democratic process.
This is not the first time the mask has slipped from Jean-Claude Juncker, who has dismissed previous referendum results and has said that ‘there can be no democratic choice against the European treaties’ (BBC News, February 2015, link).The Commission’s contempt for democracy should be contrasted with the democratic process in the UK today.
If we Vote Leave on 23 June, we can end the unelected Commission’s ability to make our laws for good and take back control over the £350 million it takes from us each week.
This referendum is about what is good for the British people - not American politicians
It is not for American politicians to tell us which way we should or should not vote.
After we Vote Leave, we will continue to be America’s strongest ally. We will be able to strengthen our security alliance and intelligence sharing without having to worry about the European Court undermining that relationship.
TTIP is failing because other EU countries don’t want to sign up to the deal (BBC News, 3 May 2016, link).
After we Vote Leave, we look set to go to the front of the queue to get a free trade deal with the United States, but one that doesn’t undermine the NHS by handing power to giant transnational corporations. That’s the safer choice.
May 5, 2016
Vote Leave to improve animal welfare
If we Vote Leave, we can ban the export of live lambs for slaughter in appalling conditions abroad, improving animal welfare.
If we vote to stay, there is nothing we can do to end this appalling practice. The European Court has already ruled that a ban is illegal under EU law. Local councils have been fined millions for trying to improve animal welfare.
The pro-EU campaigner and environmentalist, Stanley Johnson, has today admitted that Vote Leave are ‘100 per cent right’ and that ‘Britain lacks the power to do things it might want to do’ (The Times, 5 May 2016, link).
If Vote Leave on 23 June, we take back control and can spend the £350 million we send to Brussels each week on our priorities, like animal welfare.
Turkish membership of EU given boost
The Prime Minister claimed yesterday that Turkish accession is not ‘remotely on the cards’ (The Times, 5 May 2016, link).
This was a strange assertion. The UK is already paying over £1 billion to facilitate Turkish accession, money which could be spent on our priorities like the NHS (Vote Leave,27 April 2016, link).
The Prime Minister has already said that he wants ‘to pave the road from Ankara to Brussels and that it is ‘indisputable’ Turkey should join the EU (Speech in Ankara, 27 July 2010, link).
Yesterday, the European Commission proposed visa-free access for over 75 million Turkish citizens to the Schengen Area, creating a visa-free zone from the English Channel to the borders of Syria and Iraq, as part of a renewed push for Turkish membership (Daily Express, 4 May 2016, link). This was despite Turkey failing to meet a number of the benchmarks required for the deal
The only way to take back control of our borders and our security is to Vote Leave on 23 June. This could be our last chance for decades.
UK could be kicked out of Dublin system
The European Commission yesterday proposed further centralisation of EU asylum policy. It will involve quotas and massive fines for member states who refuse to accept asylum seekers (The Sun, 5 May 2016, link).
The UK has an opt-out from the new system but there is no guarantee it will be allowed to remain in the existing Dublin system after the referendum, if the EU institutions so choose (Vote Leave, 4 May 2016, link).
Regardless, the Dublin system doesn’t work in UK’s favour: it allows for the removal of just 1% of asylum seekers but means giving up control to the European Court of our asylum policy, including over how we implement the vital 1951 UN Convention.
The only way to take back control of our borders and asylum policy is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Number 10 to enlist another foreign power in bid to prop up pro-EU campaign
The Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzō Abe, will visit London today. It is speculated that he will intervene in the campaign (Press Association, 5 May 2016, link).
The Japanese economy has been stagnant since the 1980s while Britain has grown rapidly. We should not take his advice on handing control to Brussels over our economy.
Japan has one of the strictest migration policies on earth. They wouldn’t open their borders to the rest of South East Asia, and we aren’t asking them to.
Leading Japanese companies, such as Honda, Toyota and Nissan, have made clear that they will continue to invest in the UK if we Vote Leave. If we struck a trade deal with Japan, investment would increase further.
The safer option is to Vote Leave on 23 June and take back control of our economy and the power to make our own trade agreements.
Elections today
Voters head to the polls today to vote in elections to the Scottish Parliament, National Assembly for Wales and Northern Ireland Assembly, as well as local and mayoral elections in England (BBC News, 5 May 2016, link).
We wish all candidates well.
May 4, 2016
Emergency brake to have no impact on migration
A report from Oxford University’s Migration Observatory shows that as few as 10% of recently arrived EU migrants are claiming tax credits (The Sun, 4 May 2016, link).
These damning statistics confirm that the Prime Minister’s trivial renegotiation will have no impact on migration.
As the independent Office for Budget Responsibility observed in December, the emergency brake will have ‘not much’ effect on immigration (BBC News, 8 December 2015, link).
The only way to take back control of our borders is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Proposed reform of EU asylum rules expected
The European Commission will today unveil proposals to reform the EU’s asylum rules. Countries that refuse to accept EU quotas could face fines of up to €250,000 per asylum seeker (Financial Times, 3 May 2016, link).
Brussels is using the crisis to push through more centralisation, rather than address the root cause of the problem, the EU’s failing open borders system.
The current Dublin system does not work in the UK’s interests. It allows for the removal of just 1% of asylum seekers, but involves giving up complete control of our asylum policy to the European Court. This problem will be made worse by the Charter of Fundamental Rights. Staying in Dublin is not a victory.
Government Ministers used to call for an end to the European Court’s control over asylum but nothing changed during the renegotiation. The only way to end the supremacy of the European Court is to Vote Leave on 23 June.
Visa-free access for Turkey to be proposed
The Commission will also propose visa free access for more than 75 million Turkish citizens to the Schengen Area today, despite Turkey’s failure to meet the requirements previously set out (Guardian, 4 May 2016, link).
The EU is about to create a visa-free zone from the English Channel to the borders of the warzones of Syria and Iraq. This is a threat to security.
There are just two Border Force cutters protecting the UK’s coastline (Daily Telegraph, 27 March 2016, link).
If we Vote Leave on 23 June, we will take back control of our borders. We can spend the £350 million Brussels takes from us each week on our priorities, like more Border Force cutters.
Euro army would undermine NATO
Former Foreign Secretary, Lord Owen, has warned that it is ‘utter pretension to think that the EU can mirror the defence capabilities of a united single country — unless of course, as many of us believe, it is yet one more step towards a United States of Europe’ (The Times, 4 May 2016, link).
Other EU member states consistently fail to meet their obligation to NATO to spend 2% of GDP on defence (Vote Leave, 10 April 2016, link).
The Treaty of Lisbon envisages the creation of a European Army, stating ‘the common security and defence policy shall include the progressive framing of a common Union defence policy.’
If we vote to stay in, NATO will be weakened and we will lose more and more control over our armed forces. It is safer to take back control on 23 June.
European Commission contradicts Government’s attempts to do Britain down
Buried in a 200 page report published by the European Commission yesterday was a forecast that the UK will grow faster than Germany, France and Italy this year and next, with rising growth in the coming months (Daily Mail, 4 May 2016, link).
It is ironic that not even the Commission believes the Government’s attempts to do down the British economy.
If we Vote Leave, we will take back control of the £350 million Brussels takes from us each week and the power to strike our own trade deals. This will be good for jobs, growth and investment.
May 3, 2016
New plans for an EU army revealed
Germany has produced a white paper, which calls for a European army, a joint headquarters and shared military assets (Financial Times, 2 May 2016, link).
This is not the first time that the EU has pushed for such a scheme. The Treaty of Lisbon envisages the creation of a European Army, stating ‘the common security and defence policy shall include the progressive framing of a common Union defence policy.’ There is already an EU military arm.
If we vote to stay in, we will lose more and more control of our armed forces. It is safer to take back control.
New Turkish visa plan to be introduced
The EU is set to give conditional support for Turks to travel without visas to Europe's passport-free Schengen area. This will establish a visa free zone from the English Channel to the borders of the Syrian warzone (BBC News, May 2016, link). This is bad for our security.
There is a real risk that the EU could force the UK to liberalise visas by including the proposal in a 'development cooperation' agreement with Turkey (from which the UK has no opt out).
The European Court has already said the EU has the right to regulate third country migration into the UK in this way in the case of the 2011 EU-Philippines agreement.
None of this has been addressed by the renegotiation because the Treaties were not changed.
BSE invents more numbers in quest to do down Britain
BSE claims today that ‘for the first time’, they have calculated the volume of trade ‘at risk if we leave’ the EU (The Sun, May 2016, link). This is wrong - it’s at least their fourth attempt.
They can’t even agree with each other on the impact of leaving the EU: prominent BSE campaigner Anna Soubry has said that exports to the EU will ‘go down to almost absolutely zero if we come out’ (BBC Any Questions, 11 March 2016, link). Lord Darling claimed that the amount of trade that would be lost would be £92 billion (Press Association, 15 April 2016, link).
Lord Rose, has admitted however that ‘nothing is going to happen if we come out of Europe… It’s not going to be a step change or somebody’s going to turn the lights out and we’re all suddenly going to find that we can’t go to France, it’s going to be a gentle process’ (The Times, 17 October 2015, link).
Blair and Clinton to enter referendum debate
The former Prime Minister, Tony Blair, and former US President, Bill Clinton, are to join forces to campaign for the EU (The Times, 3 May 2016, link).
Tony Blair lobbied for Britain to scrap the pound, which would have been a disaster. He gave up countless vetoes and surrendered part of the rebate-grant, costing Britain billions. He signed us up to the Charter of Fundamental Rights, which has put the European Court in charge of our intelligence agencies. His judgment cannot be trusted on the EU.
We should take this decision on the basis of British interests - not American interests. Bill Clinton’s argument might carry more weight if the US had dropped its border controls with Mexico under his Presidency, and had accepted the judicial supremacy of the Organisation of American States. It didn’t, and in the UK we aren’t asking it to.
May 2, 2016
April 28, 2016
April 29, 2016
John Major talks Britain down
The former Prime Minister, Sir John Major, gave an interview on the Today Programme in which he decided to do Britain down.
John Major is wrong - the EU is a disaster for prosperity. Youth unemployment in Greece is 51.9%, in Spain it is 45.3%, in Italy it is 39.1% (Eurostat, April 2016, link).
John Major took Britain into the ERM (BBC News, 2005, link) - this caused interest rates to rise to 15% and lead to millions of households going into negative equity. John Major also refused to rule out scrapping the pound - that would have been a disaster for Britain (Conservative Party Manifesto, 1997, link).
John Major is wrong to claim that the EU is responsible for peace in Europe. Leading historians, including the former head of history at Cambridge University, David Abulafia, have dismissed the claim that the EU has brought peace to Europe (Historians for Britain, January 2016, link).
Questions about the Government’s trade union deal
Bernard Jenkin raised a serious point in the House of Commons yesterday, when he pointed out that the Government appears to have agreed with the unions to change the Trade Union Bill in return for extra funding for the IN campaign (BBC News, April 2016, link).
Regardless of whether you are for or against the Government’s changes, these are grave charges and the Government has to explain its actions.
As Dennis Skinner said in the Commons yesterday, if £1.7m is the price to make a few changes to the Bill, what price will the Government accept to scrap the bill all-together? Whatever the price, it will certainly be less than the £350 million Brussels takes from us every week.
Brussels to sue UK over HGV levy
Yesterday, the European Commission threatened to sue the UK over its HGV levy which tries to ensure foreign lorries pay a fair fee to use the UK road network (The Times, 29 April 2016, link).
If the European Court rules against the UK, it could have to repay £93 million raised from the levy with interest: that’s enough for a brand new hospital. This bill is on top of the £350 million Brussels already takes from us each week.
The only way to ensure that elected British politicians rather than the unelected EU officials and judges set the taxes we must all pay is to Vote Leave on 23 June. It’s the safer choice.
Workers should Vote Leave - the EU is bad for workers rights
The former union leader, Sir Brendan Barber, joined the Prime Minister’s campaign to talk Britian down yesterday. He claimed that the EU was good for workers. He is wrong - real progress for workers has come from the UK Parliament, not the EU.
The minimum wage has nothing to do with the EU - it was the last Labour Government that introduced it and the current Conservative Government that is increasing it to a living wage.
The UK has long legislated for workers rights’ in the Equal Pay Act and the Sex Discrimination Act, for example. We do not need the EU to protect these.
IN campaign confuses Sweden and Switzerland
The Head of the IN campaign, Lord Rose of Monewden, yesterday confused Sweden and Switzerland, claiming Sweden was outside the EU (Financial Times, 29 April 2016, link).
April 28, 2016
Hidden Treasury numbers show EU costs households £4,600 per year
The Employment Minister, Priti Patel, will today cite Treasury research showing that EU regulation costs the economy £125.2 billion per year. This is the equivalent of £4,600 per household per year or £23,236 per company (Daily Mail, 28 April 2016, link).
Pro-EU campaigners such as Nick Herbert, Nick Clegg and the Government have previously called for small and medium companies to be exempt from EU regulation, but their calls for change have fallen on deaf ears.
Only 6% of British firms export to the EU, but all British firms have to comply with the full burden of EU law. This is unfair and harms our economy. The only companies that should have to comply with the EU law are the companies that actually export to the EU.
It is illegal under EU law for the British Parliament to alter the burden of EU regulations on small companies: this is damaging.
Leaving the EU good for the City of London
The former Chief Executive of HSBC Holdings, Michael Geoghegan, today argues that leaving the EU would ‘deliver benefits to the City, the rest of the country — and our partners abroad’ (Financial Times, 27 April 2016, link).
The EU needs access to the largest financial centre in the world. Of course, they will strike a deal. The Chairman of the IN campaign, Lord Rose, has admitted ‘We are very good at what we do in terms of financial services. They cannot do without us’ (Evidence to Treasury Select Committee, 2 March 2016, link).
If we Vote Leave, we can also take back control of the banks from Brussels. It is crucial that we have the powers we need to stop them blowing up the economy, as they did in 2008.
Leaving the EU will cut migration as the economy continues to grow
A report by the OECD has found that the only way the Prime Minister can meet his promise to cut migration to the tens of thousands is to Vote Leave (The Times, 28 April 2016, link).
Every year, a quarter of a million Europeans come to Britain, the equivalent of a city the size of Newcastle. This puts a strain on public services, such as the NHS. It is safer to take back control of our borders.
Even under the most pessimistic assumptions, including that the UK would strike no trade deals with the EU or any other country, the OECD report still showed our economy would grow if we take back control (Vote Leave, 27 April 2016, link).
They arrive at the supposed tax by comparing that growth to some mythical hypothetical where all is fine in the EU and the Eurozone. Given the economic history of the Eurozone these hypotheticals are not credible.
True face of the pro-EU/pro-euro campaign emerges
Former Deputy Prime Minister and leading pro-EU campaigner, Lord Heseltine, yesterday said ‘we will join the euro’ if we vote to remain (Daily Mail, 27 April 2016, link).
The true face of the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign has emerged. Many of those leading the campaign to stay in the EU, like Peter Mandelson, Roland Rudd and Nick Clegg, campaigned for the euro fifteen years ago.
If we vote to stay in the EU, these pro-EU campaigners will only step up their efforts to scrap the pound. It is safer to Vote Leave and take back the control of the £350 million we send to Brussels each week.
Prime Minister and pro-Euro campaigners to do Britain down
The Prime Minister will today campaign with Sir Brendan Barber, claiming that leaving the EU ‘would be a disaster for working people’ (Guardian, 27 April 2016, link).
It is saddening to see the Prime Minister doing Britain down. We do not need to give up control to the European Court to protect workers’ rights. UK law is often far more generous than EU law, for example, on maternity pay and leave.
Sir Brendan previously said ‘the benefits of the euro are self-evident’ (BBC Newsnight, 29 January 2009, link). Had we listened to him and scrapped the pound it would have been a disaster for workers, as it has been for workers in Greece and Spain.
In the past, Sir Brendan has warned that ‘minimum standards’ have been ‘undermined’ by the European Court (Guardian, 4 February 2009, link). He was right. The safer option for British workers is to Vote Leave on 23 June and spend the £350 million we send to Brussels each week on our priorities.
April 27, 2016
The OECD report:
The OECD acknowledges that the economy will continue to grow after we Vote Leave.
The OECD’s central forecast is ‘an annual reduction in UK GDP growth of 0.3 percentage points per annum over 2016 to 2030’ (p.32).
Since trend growth in the period 1980 to 2014 has averaged 2.2% per annum, the OECD is forecasting that the UK economy will continue to grow by at least 1.9% per year until 2030 if we Vote Leave (ONS, 27 February 2015, link).
The OECD admits we can take back control of our borders if we Vote Leave and predict that a city the size of Manchester will not be added to the UK population as a result.
The OECD states: ‘Withdrawal from the EU could also provide scope for the imposition of tighter controls on inward migration. This would reinforce the endogenous effects on economic migration coming from a weaker UK economy and labour market. Net inward migration is assumed to decline by 84 000 per year over 2019-2023’ (p.21).
The OBR has forecast that 2.996 million net migrants will come to the UK between 2016 and 2030 (OBR, March 2016, chart 5.6, link). These forecasts were endorsed by the Treasury last week (HM Treasury, 18 April 2016, link). If 84,000 fewer net migrants entered the UK between 2023 and 2030 compared to the Treasury forecast, immigration would be 588,000 lower, the equivalent of a city the size of Manchester (ONS, 2012, link).
The OECD imply that this is likely, stating: ‘After Brexit, immigration is likely to be restricted more significantly’ (p.28)
It further acknowledges that, if we Vote Leave, we can control the quality of people coming to the UK: ‘Measures to control immigration, based on the introduction of points systems as in Australia and Canada, help to increase skill levels of new immigrants’ (p.28).
The report says that the only way that the Prime Minister’s promise to cut migration to the tens of thousands is if we Vote Leave.
The report states: ‘The UK Prime Minister has set the target of reducing net migration to below 100 000 per year assuming that the UK remains in the EU. Although not directly linked to negotiations with the EU following Brexit, tighter controls in the UK could lead to a reduction of net migration from EU and non-EU countries to below this level’ (p.20).
The OBR has said net migration from 2021 onwards will be 185,000 per year (OBR, March 2016, chart 5.6, link). If the OECD is right that net migration would be 84,000 lower by 2023 onwards, this means net migration would be cut to 101,000 per year by 2023 if we Vote Leave: just 2,000 above the level needed to meet the Prime Minister’s promise.
The 2010 Conservative Manifesto promised that ‘we will take steps to take net migration back to the levels of the 1990s – tens of thousands a year, not hundreds of thousands’ (Invitation to Join the Government of Britain, 2010, p. 21, link).
The 2015 Conservative manifesto said: ‘Our commitment to you: … keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands … Continuing this vital work will be our priority over the next five years’ (Conservative Party Manifesto, 2015, link).
The lowest net migration has been, since 2010, was 177,000 in 2012. Net migration in 2014 was 313,000, of which 174,000 persons came from the EU (ONS, 2015, link).
The OECD assumes that there will be no free trade deal with the EU after we Vote Leave. This is a highly flawed assumption.
The OECD states that: ‘trade with the EU and other countries would initially revert to a WTO MFN-basis’ (p.19). This is a highly flawed assumption that not even the IN campaign seriously contemplates as a realistic possibility. Leading pro-EU campaigners have admitted the UK will strike a free trade agreement if we Vote Leave.
The UK's former Ambassador to the EU and leading supporter of BSE, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, has admitted 'there is no doubt that the UK could secure a free trade agreement with the EU. That is not an issue' (Lords Hansard, 2 November 2015, col. 1492, link).
The pro-EU CBI has said 'the UK is highly likely to secure a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, and such an agreement would be likely to be negotiated at an extremely high level of ambition relative to other FTAs' (CBI, 4 November 2013, link).
The pro-EU Centre for European Reform has accepted that 'given the importance of the UK market to the eurozone, the UK would probably have little difficulty in negotiating an FTA’ (CER, June 2014, link).
HSBC has said 'we think it is fair to assume that the UK and the EU would continue to enjoy thriving and tariff-free trade in goods' ('A very British dilemma', February 2015, p. 2).
The Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, has admitted that a free trade agreement in goods 'would be relatively simple to negotiate' (HC Deb 26 February 2015, col. 501, link).
The OECD falsely assumes that the UK will strike no free trade deals with countries outside the EU.
The report assumes that even if the UK strikes a free trade agreement with the EU, it ‘continues to trade with other countries under MFN rules as before’ (p.19). This means that the OECD is forecasting that the UK will not strike a single trade deal in fourteen years if we Vote Leave.
The UK is in fact more likely to strike free trade agreements if we Vote Leave. The EU has failed to negotiate a free trade agreement with China. By contrast, both Iceland (which has a population of less than half a million) and Switzerland have negotiated free trade agreements with China (Icelandic Ministry for Foreign Affairs, 15 April 2013, link; Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, 2014, link).
The OECD is wrong to claim that the referendum has led to uncertainty.
The report claims that the referendum has led to economic uncertainty, but this is not backed up by the evidence.
The OBR has stated that ‘there were only tentative signs of uncertainty regarding the EU referendum result affecting investment intentions by the time we closed this forecast and we have made no adjustment to reflect a change in behaviour’ (OBR, March 2016, link).
The UK has the highest growth in the G7. The OECD has forecast that the UK will be the fastest growing economy in the G7 in 2016, with growth of 2.1% (OECD, February 2016, link).
The OECD is wrong that leaving the EU could lead to falls in the currency or an increase in the budget deficit.
The OECD itself acknowledges that ‘fiscal savings from stopping net transfers to the EU budget are likely to be 0.3-0.4% of GDP per year’.
The UK would also cut the current account deficit if we Vote Leave, reducing pressure on the currency. The UK recorded a current account deficit of £96.3 billion in 2015 (ONS, 31 March 2016, link).
This could be substantially reduced if we Vote Leave. In 2014 (the last year for which data are available) the UK recorded a £12.3 billion balance of payments deficit with the EU institutions (ONS, Pink Book, 2015, link). ONS figures released in March 2015 show the UK Government paid the EU institutions (net) £10.6 billion in 2015 (this figure excludes payments by the private sector to the EU institutions) (ONS, 31 March 2016, link).
The EU-funded Oxford Economics group has concluded that if the UK voted to leave the EU, ‘In most cases (five out of nine), the UK’s trade balance improves’ (Oxford Economics, March 2016, link).
The ONS GDP figures
The economy is growing.
In the first quarter of 2016, the ONS estimates that GDP increased by 0.4% (ONS, 27 April 2016, link). This is just 0.1% lower than in the first quarter of 2015 (ONS, 27 April 2016, link).
In the year ending March 2016, GDP grew by 2.1% (ONS, 27 April 2016, link).
Lower than expected GDP growth in the UK cannot be attributed to the EU referendum. The growth of every major economy in the G7 and other emerging economies has also been downgraded.
In its April 2016 World Economic Outlook, the IMF downgraded forecast GDP growth for every country in the G7: the US (-0.2%), the Euro Area (-0.2%), Germany (-0.2%), France (-0.2%), Italy (-0.3%), Spain (-0.1%), Japan (-0.5%), and Canada (-0.2%) (IMF, 12 April 2016, link).
The IMF also downgraded Russia (-0.8%), Brazil (-0.3%), Mexico (0.2%), Nigeria (-1.8%), and South Africa (-0.1%) (IMF, 12 April 2016, link).
The Governor of the Bank of England has said that global risks to the economy are more important than the EU referendum and that there are risks to remaining in the EU.
The Governor of the Bank of England, Dr Mark Carney, has said: ‘In my judgment, the global risks, including from China, are bigger than the domestic risks’ (Evidence to Treasury Select Committee, 8 March 2015, Q1122, link).
Dr Carney has also said ‘we do think there are risks from remaining in the European Union and risks particularly related to the development of the euro area’ (Evidence to Treasury Select Committee, 8 March 2015, Q993, link).
The Bank of England’s 2015 stress test had ‘a particular focus on emerging economies and the euro area.’ It recorded ‘a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the United Kingdom. For example, the UK unemployment rate rises to over 9%, a level last observed in the aftermath of the early 1990s recession. UK residential and commercial property prices are projected to fall by 20% and 35% respectively under the stress scenario’ (Bank of England, December 2015, link).
Both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor have previously said that the referendum has not caused any economic damage:
The Prime Minister has previously said that the referendum has not caused any economic damage. In November 2014, the Prime Minister told the CBI conference that: ‘The worst thing for us to do as a country is to pretend this European debate isn’t happening … If there has been uncertainty, why is it that this has been such an extraordinary period of investment into this country?’ (The Guardian, 10 November 2014, link). In 2013, he said opponents of the referendum’s ‘whole argument about there being uncertainty is fatally undermined’ and that a vote on the EU ‘is right for business, it is right for our economy’ (Hansard, 23 January 2013, col. 306, link).
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, has previously dismissed allegations that the referendum would have a negative economic impact, stating: ‘I don't agree with him on this and I don't think it's any secret that Liberal Democrats and the Labour Party don't think the people should be asked about our future in Europe, whereas the Conservative Party does. I think the business community understands what we are doing’ (Evening Standard, 28 January 2013, link).
The Head of the IN campaign has admitted that claims the economy will suffer if we take back control are false.
The Chairman of the IN campaign, Lord Rose of Monewden, has admitted that there are no short-term risks if we Vote Leave: ‘Nothing is going to happen if we come out of Europe in the first five years ... There will be absolutely no change … It’s not going to be a step change or somebody’s going to turn the lights out and we’re all suddenly going to find that we can’t go to France, it’s going to be a gentle process’ (The Times, 17 October 2015, link).
He has also dismissed claims there will be a fall in investment and employment as a result of leaving the EU as ‘all a red herring’, stating ‘it is just scaremongering’ (Sky News, 19 April 2015, link).
April 27
Yet another warning that EU membership undermines our security
James Clapper, the US Director of National Intelligence, has warned that the free movement of citizens around the EU is ‘in conflict’ with the need to protect security (Daily Telegraph, 26 April 2016, link).
Clapper is just the latest in a long line of top security experts who have said that the EU undermines our security. The former Secretary General of Interpol, Ronald K Noble, has said the Schengen system ‘is effectively an international passport-free zone for terrorists to execute attacks on the Continent and make their escape’ (Wall Street Journal, 19 November 2015, link).
The European Commission and European Court now control how we find and fight terrorists. This is very dangerous. We have the best intelligence and security services in the world, and don’t need the EU telling us what to do. We'll be much safer if we take back control of our borders and security instead of giving more powers away. We can spend our money on our priorities, like security.
The IN campaign are lying when they say we control our borders. EU law forbids us from determining what documents those entering the UK must possess. Our border controls are under constant attack from the European Court. EU judges have prevented us from removing those who assist terrorists. We should be able to control who can come to the UK and whether they are allowed to stay.
The OECD were wrong on the ERM, they were wrong on the euro and they are wrong now
The Secretary General of the OECD, José Angel Gurría, has taken to the radio to talk Britain down. He has constantly got the big decisions wrong and is in the pay of Brussels. We cannot take him seriously.
In December 1990, the OECD said that there were ‘potentially great’ benefits from joining the ERM (Xinhua General News Service, 20 December 1990). The ERM was a disaster for the United Kingdom. The OECD later recommended that the UK join the euro (OECD, 1999, link). We cannot take them seriously.
The OECD is in the pay of the EU to the tune of millions and millions of pounds. They were given €30,494,895 in total between 2007 and 2014. They are not a neutral organisation (European Commission, 2016, link).
More evidence that the EU costs the UK
MPs have highlighted that the EU has imposed fines of at least £650m on the UK over the past decade. They also pointed out that Whitehall had shown a ‘distinct lack of urgency’ in tackling the problem (BBC News, April 2016, link).
These are huge sums, and we are set to pay out hundreds of millions in more fines in the years ahead - but remember that the EU takes £350m from us every week. We should spend that money on our priorities, like the NHS.
April 26, 2016
New Vote Leave video: save our NHS
Vote Leave has released its latest campaign video which makes the positive case for spending more money on the NHS and warns of the dangers of voting to stay in the European Union, specifically citing the added pressures that the NHS will face following the accession of new countries to the EU - Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey.
We cannot control our borders - and because the Prime Minister’s renegotiation does nothing to change this fact - public services like the NHS will face an unquantifiable strain as millions more become EU citizens and gain the right to move to the UK.
This is a direct and serious threat to our public services. It is safer to take back control of the £350 million we send to Brussels each week.
Frank Field warns that Labour risks alienating its supporters by backing ‘remain’
Frank Field will warn in a speech that the Labour Party leadership’s pro-EU position could be ‘the second-longest suicide note in Labour's history’ (BBC News, April 2016, link).
Mr Field will also warn that ‘the last thing Jeremy needs to do is to undermine further the traditional Labour vote, much of which wishes to leave the European Union. For the party leader more actively to campaign for the Remain campaign will push even more Labour voters into the arms of UKIP.’
We could give our junior doctors the pay raise they deserve if we Vote Leave
According to the British Medical Association (BMA), one of the main causes of the junior doctors’ strike is the end of automatic annual pay progression. The only way we can afford to retain automatic pay progression to Vote Leave on 23 June (Vote Leave, April 2016, link).
Every week we send £350 million to the EU. That is enough to buy a brand new hospital. We should spend that money on our priorities - like helping junior doctors get the pay structure they deserve.
If we Vote Leave on 23 June, we could afford to reintroduce automatic annual pay progression, which would cost just under £1 billion, or 5% of our annual contribution to the EU (The Times, April 2016, link).
The Home Secretary splits with the Government
In her speech yesterday, the Home Secretary Theresa May questioned whether it is right to allow Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey to join the EU. She is right that there are serious concerns - adding an additional 88 million people to the EU will put huge pressure on the NHS. It will be a free-for-all.
The only way we can protect our NHS is to Vote Leave on 23 June, take back control of our borders and stop sending £350 million every week to Brussels.
Is the Prime Minister now going to make clear that the UK no longer supports these countries’ bid to join the EU? If he does not, will he make clear why he disagrees with his own Home Secretary?
The Home Secretary also said we should pull out of the European Convention on Human Rights. Today, all of the ECHR and more is contained in the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights. The European Court has recently used the Charter to take control of our intelligence agencies. It is safer to take back control from the European Court by voting to leave on 23 June.
April 22, 2016
Obama dictates to the UK how to vote
Barack Obama’s argument (Telegraph, April 2016, link) might carry more weight if had dropped its border controls with Mexico, and had accepted the judicial supremacy of the Organisation of American States. It hasn’t, and in the UK we aren’t asking it to (Daily Mail, April 2016, link).
The EU is a threat to the special relationship. The European Court has used the Charter of Fundamental Rights to take control of our intelligence agencies and is a mortal threat to the Five Eyes Agreement on which British security has depended since the War. It is much safer to take back control.
The US State Department thinks that it is in their interests for an ally like us to be arguing for things in Brussels. That may help America but it does not help us. Don’t forget - there are other powerful figures and companies in America that think Britain should leave (Guardian, March 2016, link).
As the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, says today: ‘Can we take back control of our borders and our money and our system of Government? Yes we can’ (Sun, April 2016, link).
Remain campaign deploy ISIS
Tony Blair’s former Director of Communications, Alastair Campbell, has claimed that ISIS, President Putin and Donald Trump support a leave vote (Guardian, April 2016, link).
The biggest gift to ISIS has been the EU's open borders policy – which allows terrorists to slip into Europe undetected, and carry out attacks. Our membership of the EU does nothing but expose us to this risk – and means we are powerless to prevent these people travelling to the UK
The respected former head of MI6, Sir Richard Dearlove, has pointed out that leaving the EU ‘would bring two potentially important security gains: the ability to dump the European Convention on Human Rights… and, more importantly, greater control over immigration from the European Union’ (Sky News, March 2016, link).
The UK does pay £350m to the EU every week.
There are unfounded questions about how much the EU takes from us each week. The answer is clear - the ONS Pink Book, 2015 says that ‘total debits’ to the EU are £19.1bn - that’s £367 every week. That is going to increase to £400 a week by 2020.
When money is debited from your bank account, you know it is being taken by someone else. We should spend the £350 million on our priorities like the NHS.
The rebate is a discretionary grant sometimes paid by the European Commission. There is no obligation on the EU to pay it and we have to constantly negotiate for it to apply. As the Chancellor of the Exchequer has said: 'It is not a unilateral decision of the British Treasury or the British Government to just say, “This is our rebate. We are entitled to it. Pay up”. The way this works and has always worked is there is a negotiation with the European Commission’ (Evidence to Treasury Select Committee, 17 December 2014, link).
The £350 million doesn't include things like the cost of EU energy or public procurement laws which cost us billions each year. Nor does it include the payouts we have to make to Brussels as a result of the European Court setting aside our tax laws. This could cost us £43 billion in the next five years alone (Vote Leave, 10 April 2016, link).
IN campaigners are in a panic and are trying to get Vote Leave to change the number because they can’t justify sending £350 every week to the EU. They are trying to fudge the numbers.
April 20, 2016
Juncker admits meddling in Britain
· The President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, has said that ‘we are interfering in too many domains of their private lives’ (Daily Mail, 19 April 2016, link).
· This is a welcome admission. If we vote to stay it will only get worse. Brussels will continue to take £350 million every week from us, money which could better be spent on our priorities like the NHS.
· For years, pro-EU campaigners have claimed the Commission has learnt its lesson at last, will stop interfering and respect ‘subsidiarity’. These comments show such claims are wishful thinking.
· A vote to stay is a vote to give Mr Juncker permanent control over the UK.
Michael Gove set out what leave looks like
· In a major speech yesterday, Justice Secretary Michael Gove set out what leave looks like (The Times, 20 April 2016, link).
· There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey which Britain will be part of. The idea that we will be the only country in Europe other than Russia and Belarus that isn’t part of this free trade zone is just silly.
· We will trade freely without accepting the supremacy of the European Court, paying billions to Brussels or making every British company comply with EU rules. This will be good for jobs, investment and growth.
· It is safer to Vote Leave and take back control of our economy and democracy. We will strike a better deal for Britain and Europe.
British taxpayers continue to be on the line for billions because of EU law
· Yesterday, the insurer Prudential moved a step closer to claiming £100 million from the taxpayer for breaches of EU law (Financial Times, 19 April 2016, link).
· British taxpayers could be on the line for up to £50 billion because of rulings of the European Court attacking our tax system (Sunday Times, 10 April 2016, link).
· The EU may be good for some big multi-nationals, but the it's bad for smaller firms and UK taxpayers.
· People will be shocked that unelected EU judges are overruling the decisions of our parliament on tax rules - costing us all billions, which could be spent on the NHS.
· These huge bills show how the EU costs the taxpayer far more than the £350 million Brussels takes from us each week, which is a conservative underestimate of the cost of Brussels to the public purse.
Former US Treasury Secretaries back pro-EU campaign
· Eight former US Treasury Secretaries have backed the IN campaign today (The Times, 20 April 2016, link).
· We should take this decision on the basis of British interests - not American interests.
· The US State Department thinks that it is in their interests for an ally like us to be arguing for things in Brussels. That may help America but it does not help us.
· The US argument might carry more weight if had dropped its border controls with Mexico, and had accepted the judicial supremacy of the Organisation of American States. It hasn’t, and in the UK we aren’t asking it to.
· The UK will be a more effective voice for free trade and international cooperation if we take back control of the power to negotiate our own trade and investment deals and our seat on the World Trade Organization.
Pro-EU business letter leaks
· Bosses of Ann Summers, Jack Wills, Net a Porter and LoveFilm are to back the pro-EU campaign (The Sun, 19 April 2016, link).
· The EU is good for big business but bad for small firms, who are forced to pay over £600 million every week to meet the cost of EU regulation.
· Just 5% of British businesses export to the EU, but 100% have to comply with ‘single market’ laws. This is damaging.
· We should strike a new deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation and spend the £350 million we send to Brussels each week on our priorities like the NHS.
April 21, 2016
Nick Clegg talks Britain down.
Nick Clegg is to make a speech with doom-laden predictions for what will happen if Britain leaves the EU (Independent, April 2016, link). He made the same predictions about the euro. He was wrong then, he is wrong now.
He used to warn we’d disappear off the map if we didn’t join the euro. Now he’s telling us it would be a disaster if we Vote Leave, along with his backers at Goldman Sachs.
Nick Clegg used to promised a referendum but then backtracked on it. He’s lost all credibility when he talks about the EU.
The PM disagrees with Stephen Crabb on unemployment
Stephen Crabb is trying to talk down the British economy by linking unemployment numbers to the EU referendum (Guardian, April 2016, link). There is no evidence that the referendum has created substantive uncertainty, as the independent OBR has made clear (OBR, March 2016, link).
Many of yesterday’s figures were positive. Employment increased in the last three months and the last year, the number of economically inactive persons fell, the employment rate is at an historical high and earnings are up.
The Prime Minister has said that the referendum has not caused uncertainty. In November 2014, the Prime Minister told the CBI conference that: ‘The worst thing for us to do as a country is to pretend this European debate isn’t happening… If there has been uncertainty, why is it that this has been such an extraordinary period of investment into this country?’ (The Guardian, 10 November 2014, link).
Obama due to tell UK how to vote
Barack Obama is due to arrive in the UK imminently. White House sources have made very clear that he will vocally back Britain’s membership of the EU. He will pen an article and make comments (Guardian, April 2016, link).
The US argument might carry more weight if had dropped its border controls with Mexico, and had accepted the judicial supremacy of the Organisation of American States. It hasn’t, and in the UK we aren’t asking it to.
The EU is a threat to the special relationship. The European Court has used the Charter of Fundamental Rights to take control of our intelligence agencies and is a mortal threat to the Five Eyes Agreement on which British security has depended since the War. It is much safer to take back control.
The US State Department thinks that it is in their interests for an ally like us to be arguing for things in Brussels. That may help America but it does not help us.
There are other powerful figures and companies in America that have a different view - that Britain should leave (Guardian, March 2016, link).
Questions about polling - we are the underdogs
There are questions in the papers about which side is ahead in the polls
We know we are the underdogs. The other side have machinery of government, the CBI and unlimited EU propaganda cash behind them. What we do know is that the more people hear of David Cameron's trivial proposals, the less they like them. We are confident that when people consider the options, they will opt to Vote Leave and take back control.
Our voters are more motivated because the other side aren’t making a positive case and are just reheating the same scare stories that they used during the euro debate. They were wrong then and they are wrong now.
April 19, 2016
Michael Gove to make major speech
The Lord High Chancellor, Michael Gove MP, will make a major speech this morning entitled: ‘The facts of life say Leave’.
The Justice Secretary will make the case for why Britain and Europe will both be better off if we Vote Leave. He will discuss how the UK can flourish outside the EU while building a new relationship with our European partners based on free trade and friendly cooperation.
He will point out that: ‘The Eurozone countries have a permanent and unstoppable majority allowing them to set the agenda and overrule British interests.’
He will also point out that the European Court ‘recently used the Charter to make clear that the European Court - not our Parliament - will decide the issue of whether convicted felons can vote and if so how far this right should be extended.’
Treasury report falls apart
It has been revealed that the Treasury’s report is based on the Government breaking its promise to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands in every year of this Parliament (The Sun, April 2016, link).
The report assumes total net international migration to the UK falls from 329,000 per year in 2014 towards 185,000 per year from 2021 onwards (HM Treasury, 18 April 2016, link). This is a clear breach of the 2015 Conservative manifesto, which pledged to ‘keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands’ (Conservative Party, 2015, link).
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